Michael Saylor
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If a person started a business today that did a million dollars this year and they grew at 100% the next 20 years, even in 20 years when you're a $10.5 trillion company, they're just going to be a trillion dollar company.
So you're seeing this as rather than operating a company, we're going to be better off just knowing what's going to happen to Bitcoin because Bitcoin is going to be the next Manhattan.
So you're seeing this as rather than operating a company, we're going to be better off just knowing what's going to happen to Bitcoin because Bitcoin is going to be the next Manhattan.
Basically, what I'm saying is that the 29% ARR is the risk-free cost of capital in the crypto economy. And the way you get to that number is Bitcoin's been going up about 55% or 60% a year for the past four years. It's been going up a little bit faster before that. But right now, Bitcoin's appreciating 60% a year.
Basically, what I'm saying is that the 29% ARR is the risk-free cost of capital in the crypto economy. And the way you get to that number is Bitcoin's been going up about 55% or 60% a year for the past four years. It's been going up a little bit faster before that. But right now, Bitcoin's appreciating 60% a year.
The S&P index, which is the conventional cost of capital, is more like 14%, 15% a year. So you've got like a 4x difference. The mainstream economy is plus 15 points. Bitcoin is 60. They're going to converge. As Bitcoin gets to the size of the S&P, when it's 100 trillion or 200 trillion and it's close to the S&P, It's going to be 1.5x the performance of the S&P and 1.5x the vol.
The S&P index, which is the conventional cost of capital, is more like 14%, 15% a year. So you've got like a 4x difference. The mainstream economy is plus 15 points. Bitcoin is 60. They're going to converge. As Bitcoin gets to the size of the S&P, when it's 100 trillion or 200 trillion and it's close to the S&P, It's going to be 1.5x the performance of the S&P and 1.5x the vol.
The VIX, which is the S&P volatility, is about 15. The ARR is about 15. Bitcoin is like 60-60. And you can figure it out from the law of large numbers. When Bitcoin is $100 trillion asset class, it's not going to be as volatile. And of course, at some point, companies in the S&P are all going to hold Bitcoin.
The VIX, which is the S&P volatility, is about 15. The ARR is about 15. Bitcoin is like 60-60. And you can figure it out from the law of large numbers. When Bitcoin is $100 trillion asset class, it's not going to be as volatile. And of course, at some point, companies in the S&P are all going to hold Bitcoin.
And so if MicroStrategy gets in the S&P and Tesla owns Bitcoin and other companies, if Microsoft starts buying Bitcoin, pretty soon the performance of Bitcoin is going to goose up, is going to improve the performance of the S&P, and then Bitcoin is going to converge. Bitcoin is always going to be more volatile because it's 24-7, 365.
And so if MicroStrategy gets in the S&P and Tesla owns Bitcoin and other companies, if Microsoft starts buying Bitcoin, pretty soon the performance of Bitcoin is going to goose up, is going to improve the performance of the S&P, and then Bitcoin is going to converge. Bitcoin is always going to be more volatile because it's 24-7, 365.
And it's always going to be higher performance because it doesn't have the risk factors of property or companies and the like.
And it's always going to be higher performance because it doesn't have the risk factors of property or companies and the like.
I think this is what you showed, right? You were showing this. Yeah, that's the chart. Bonds. Gold in the last four years, 6%. Real estate, 10%. S&P 15%.
I think this is what you showed, right? You were showing this. Yeah, that's the chart. Bonds. Gold in the last four years, 6%. Real estate, 10%. S&P 15%.
You know, that's a very useful chart. You can pretty much understand the world if you focus on that, which is if you capitalize on bonds, you're minus 5%. That's why all the banks are struggling, and that's why operating companies can't accumulate capital. Because what that's telling you is that if you're using bonds as capital, it's toxic. It's sucking 5% of your life out of you.
You know, that's a very useful chart. You can pretty much understand the world if you focus on that, which is if you capitalize on bonds, you're minus 5%. That's why all the banks are struggling, and that's why operating companies can't accumulate capital. Because what that's telling you is that if you're using bonds as capital, it's toxic. It's sucking 5% of your life out of you.
And look at the cost of capital, 15%. So here, if you use bonds, you're minus 20% versus the S&P. That means that it's an awful way to build shareholder value. If I asked you, do you want to hold $100 billion of cash in bonds and you're Apple or Microsoft, the answer is no because it's minus 20%. You might as well just give it back to the shareholders. They put it in the S&P index.
And look at the cost of capital, 15%. So here, if you use bonds, you're minus 20% versus the S&P. That means that it's an awful way to build shareholder value. If I asked you, do you want to hold $100 billion of cash in bonds and you're Apple or Microsoft, the answer is no because it's minus 20%. You might as well just give it back to the shareholders. They put it in the S&P index.
But now look at the other side, right? Bitcoin is 4x that. So if I said you could put $100 billion into bonds or $100 billion into the S&P or $100 billion into Bitcoin, which of the three charts do you want? It's pretty obvious. You take the 60%. So what MicroStrategy did is...