Michael Terpin

And so that's really the third lesson.

I mean, sort of part of the lesson of the book on the cycles is, again, you want to go and retail has a tendency to FOMO in at the top and then say, oh, my God, I was so stupid, and then they sell at a loss.

That then opens up the door for the sophisticated investors to go and buy when retail is selling and then sell when retail is buying.

And the cycles in the stock market, if you're a stock market investor and you've been around for a while, I certainly did this, you know things like sell and may and go away.

That's something that I actually did for years.

Over a 75-year period, if you sold your portfolio every May, stayed out of the market in the summer and the early fall when a lot of the crashes happened, then bought back either the same stocks or rebalanced your portfolio in November going into the Santa Claus rally and the January rally, you would have...

significantly outperformed I think it was some crazy number like two and a half x over a 75 year period wow on the other hand if you did the opposite and you basically sold in November and bought back in May over 75 years you would have barely made money you would have missed most of the gains because if you look the big crashes were like the 29 crash and in uh October um the 89 crash was I think in late September I mean September and October have been horrible months for the uh

The 09 crash, right?

The 08-09 crash.

That was in September, October.

So, you know, history has a tendency to repeat, or as Mark Twain allegedly said, I mean, there's doubts whether he actually said it, but he's referred to as saying it, which is, you know, history may not repeat, but it tends to rhyme.

Right.

And it's been true in the stock market.

It's been true in other asset classes.

That's certainly true, even more so in Bitcoin.

And so I noticed this early on, and around 2015, I developed this

concept called the four seasons of Bitcoin.

Satoshi in the white paper says that as long as every four year cycle, so there's 33 cycles that are four years where the amount of new Bitcoin gets cut in half.

So the first cycle is around 10 million Bitcoin and that was 7,200 per day.

And then after 210,000 blocks, it got cut in half.