Michael Terpin

It still took until, that was in February, I think, end of February, early March.

By the end of July, it was still only $1,900.

But yet by the end of December, it was $19,000.

And so I think this year is going to look like that.

So we started the year around $100,000.

On January 19th, it was $119,000.

Today, it's $115,000.

So it's been pretty flat for the last eight months.

But I believe that we're going to be around $200,000 by the end of the year.

which would be about three times the halving price.

Because the first time was 10X and then an 85% drop.

Sorry, 100X the halving price, then an 85% drop.

The second halving was 30X and then an 83% drop.

Should have been 10X, I thought, because it was sort of a logarithmic drop in diminishing returns and then an arithmetic drop in diminishing losses.

But we had bad macro.

We had Biden's war on crypto, Elizabeth Warren, Gary Gensler, and we also had a rapid rise in interest rates.

And so that tamped it down to only be 8X.

And then you had a little blip at the end when they approved the ETS to 9X.

And then you had a 75% drop from the 2021 high to FTX.

And to me, it's not a coincidence that all the bankruptcies and all the drama, et cetera, happened the third year of the cycle because you have the having the first year, you have the parabolic run-up.