Mike Baker

Public opinion certainly matters, but Putin's grip on power has always depended on something else.

His ability to manage a small circle of wealthy oligarchs, security officials, military leaders, and political insiders who form the backbone of the Russian state.

And increasingly, there are signs that some of those elites are beginning to question whether the war in Ukraine is still worth the cost.

Earlier this week, we brought you reporting that many of Russia's oligarchs are no longer feeling safe.

The Kremlin has expanded its campaign of asset seizures, taking greater control over private businesses and signaling that even some of the country's wealthiest figures are not beyond the state's reach.

Now, another warning sign is emerging.

According to a new report from the Wall Street Journal, influential voices from across the Russian establishment, including some longtime supporters of the war, are publicly questioning whether Moscow can actually achieve the victory that Putin promised.

What's particularly notable is who's making these arguments.

These are not liberal opposition figures.

They're not anti-war activists.

In several cases, they're individuals who strongly backed the invasion.

One example is Oleg Tsaryov.

He's a former Ukrainian politician who fled to Russia in 2014 and was once viewed as a potential leader of a Kremlin-backed government had Russian forces successfully captured Kyiv in the opening days of the war.

Last month, Tsaryov warned that Russian officials and propagandists had convinced themselves that victory was inevitable, creating what he described as an alternative reality detached from the facts on the ground.

Another prominent hardliner, Alexei Chardaev, a former Kremlin official and military analyst, argued that Russia's current course is leading not simply to a lack of victory, but potentially to outright defeat.

Meanwhile, Russian foreign policy scholar Vasily Kashin has gone even further, arguing that one of Putin's original objectives, the installation of a friendly government in Kyiv, is no longer realistic after years of brutal fighting.

That assessment strikes at the heart of the Kremlin's original rationale for launching the invasion in the first place.

These concerns are emerging as Russia enters its fifth year of war without achieving a decisive breakthrough.

While Russian forces continue to grind forward in some areas, Ukraine has increasingly demonstrated an ability to strike deep inside Russian lines.

Long range drone attacks have targeted infrastructure throughout western Russia, including a recent strike near St.