Mike Baker

In that sense, both governments felt compelled to act, but there is a significant difference between responding to an attack and returning to large-scale operations.

The available evidence suggests that neither side is particularly eager to go back to war.

Israel remains deeply engaged on multiple fronts and continues to face security challenges from Hezbollah and other regional actors.

Iran, meanwhile, is still dealing with the consequences of months of significant military pressure, economic strain, and international isolation.

That reality may help explain why the latest exchange followed a familiar pattern.

One side strikes, the other retaliates, a counter-strike follows.

Then both governments declare victory, issue stern warnings, and look for an exit ramp before events spiral beyond their control.

There may also be another factor contributing to the restraint.

On Monday, Pakistani Prime Minister Shabazz Sharif suggested that negotiations between Washington and Tehran may be approaching what he described as a, quote, final objective.

Sharif didn't provide details, and neither American nor Iranian officials have publicly confirmed that characterization.

Still, the statement is notable because it hints that diplomatic efforts may be further along than public reporting suggests.

Or, of course, it may hint that throughout this conflict, mediators and U.S.

officials have routinely expressed undue optimism over the state of negotiations.

But if negotiations are indeed making progress behind closed doors, that would give all parties, particularly President Trump, additional incentive to prevent a military confrontation from derailing a potentially larger agreement.

Of course, none of this means the underlying tensions have disappeared.

The issues that fueled the conflict remain unresolved, of course, and both Israel and Iran continue to view one another as major strategic threats.

But the past 48 hours offer an important reminder.

While the rhetoric coming from both sides is often uncompromising, neither government appears eager to transform every confrontation into a full-scale regional war.

For now, at least, both sides seem to have concluded that they've made their point.

Missiles have stopped flying for now, stern warnings have been issued from both sides, and the fragile sort of ceasefire continues.