Mike Baker

In fact, one senior UCDP analyst summed it up this way, "...for a long time, interstate wars were relatively rare, but developments in recent years point to growing international tensions and a changing global security order."

Now, it's important to keep one thing in mind.

Even with interstate conflicts reaching record levels, they still account for only a fraction of the world's conflicts.

Most remain internal struggles involving governments battling insurgencies, rebel movements, terrorists, or other armed groups within their own borders.

But regardless of who's fighting whom, the human toll is becoming increasingly severe.

The researchers recorded approximately 245,000 conflict-related deaths in 2025.

Now, that's up sharply from roughly 187,000 the year before, and it's the highest annual total recorded since 1994.

To put that into perspective, 13 of the world's 65 active conflicts generated more than 1,000 battlefield deaths, meeting the study's definition of full-scale war.

And when researchers broke down where most of those deaths occurred, three conflicts stood far above the rest.

Russia's war against Ukraine remained the deadliest interstate conflict on the planet, accounting for roughly 62% of all battle-related deaths recorded worldwide.

The war between Israel and Hamas ranked second, while Sudan's civil war ranked third.

So, you ask yourself, what explains all of this?

Well, you CDP researchers point to several factors, including growing geopolitical competition, shifting power balances among major states, and weakening international institutions originally designed to manage disputes before they escalate into armed conflict.

In other words, many of the assumptions that underpin decades of relative stability are being tested.

powers such as Russia and China are increasingly willing to challenge the US-led international order, while regional actors appear more inclined to settle disputes by force rather than through diplomacy.

And perhaps most concerning, researchers say there's little evidence that the trend is reversing.

Early data from 2026 suggests the rising global conflict is accelerating.

And on that cheery note,

Well, that, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon Bulletin for Tuesday, the 9th of June.

If you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, just reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com.