Mike Baker

They support production and storage and transport systems that help keep Russian refineries running and military supply chains fueled.

Now, while the full extent of the damage remains unclear, the targeting fits into a broader Ukrainian strategy that has been building over time.

When Ukraine lacks the ability to match Russia tank for tank or soldier for soldier or missile for missile, it leans into asymmetrical warfare.

Drones, special forces, and long-range strikes allow Kyiv to target what Russia values most – revenue, logistics, and the morale and general mood of the Russian population.

We've seen this pattern before in Russian refineries deep inside the country, fuel depots far from Ukraine's borders, Shadow Fleet tankers linked to sanctions evasion, and now offshore energy infrastructure in the Caspian Sea.

There's also a psychological component here.

Every strike like this forces Moscow to redraw its defense map,

Assets once considered safe now require protection.

Resources get diverted, insurance costs rise, production schedules get disrupted.

None of this, of course, wins the war for Ukraine overnight, but it steadily increases the cost of continuing it for Putin.

At the same time, these strikes aren't without risk.

The Caspian is a complicated region, intertwined with international energy markets and regional partners.

Offshore platforms aren't isolated targets in a vacuum.

They sit inside a web of diplomatic, commercial, and political relationships.

Kiev understands that, which is why these operations appear calibrated, limited, precise, and focused on Russian-controlled assets tied directly to the war effort.

The bigger takeaway here isn't that Ukraine has discovered a brand new playbook.

It's that an existing strategy is apparently maturing.

Ukraine is increasingly comfortable projecting force far from the front lines, using tools that allow it to strike deep without massed formations or air superiority.

For Russia, the Caspian Sea was supposed to be safe.

It no longer is.