Mike Baker

What we're seeing now is the physical enforcement of economic pressure, ships stopped and boarded and taken, not just listed on a spreadsheet.

As you're likely aware, energy exports are the lifeblood of Russia's economy.

Every tanker seized is a direct challenge to Moscow's ability to sustain revenue under sanctions.

That's why Russia decided to try and shield these vessels behind its flag.

And it's why the outcome of this standoff matters far beyond the decks of a few aging tankers.

Now, more enforcement, of course, means more encounters.

More encounters mean more chances for miscalculation.

A radio call misunderstood, an aircraft flying too close, a captain who refuses to comply.

But the fact that Russia has already backed down during live enforcement operations suggests the seizure operations may be working, at least for now.

Moscow tested the boundary, found it firmer than expected, and pulled back.

The UK appears to be drawing conclusions from that behavior.

The broader takeaway is this.

Russia tried to raise the cost of enforcement by making the shadow fleet more visible, national, and confrontational.

The U.S.

tested that assumption, and now the U.K.

appears ready to test it as well.

All right, coming up next, Russian-made air defenses in Venezuela failed to stop U.S.

aircraft during the Maduro operation, and President Trump is now warning Cuba to make a deal with Washington before it's too late.

I'll be right back.

Hey, Mike Baker here.