Mike Baker

intelligence officials reportedly concluded that while Machado had popular legitimacy, her coalition lacked control of the institutions that matter, the security services, the bureaucracy, the military, and levers of state power.

Without those, analysts warned that any attempt to install the opposition would likely collapse quickly, unless the U.S.

was prepared to maintain a sustained military presence in Venezuela.

That concern was echoed by senior officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who warned that backing the opposition could further destabilize the country and drag Washington deeper into an open-ended commitment on the ground, as opposed to removing Maduro and allowing his cronies to take over.

In other words, from the administration's perspective, this wasn't about who had won the moral argument, it was about who could realistically hold the country together once the dust settled.

The Times also reports that Machado's relationship with the Trump administration had been deteriorating for months.

Senior U.S.

officials grew increasingly frustrated with her assessments of Maduro's strength, feeling she consistently overstated how weak the regime was and underestimated its resilience.

Over time, that eroded confidence in her judgment, apparently.

There were also growing doubts within the administration about whether Machado had a workable plan to translate her movement's electoral momentum into real governing authority.

Well, they did win the election.

There's that.

After she was barred from running, U.S.

officials repeatedly pressed her team to explain how her surrogate candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, would actually take power.

According to people familiar with those conversations, they never received a clear answer.

One particularly telling episode involved Trump envoy Richard Grenell, who attempted to meet Machado in person in Caracas.

Despite assurances of protection, she declined.

Grenell also requested a list of political prisoners the opposition wanted freed and asked for a concrete transition plan, requests that apparently went unanswered, further reportedly straining relations.

From Washington's point of view, Machado's uncompromising stance, refusing any engagement with remnants of the regime and rejecting incremental steps may have reinforced her moral clarity, but it left the administration questioning her ability to navigate the realities of power.

So instead, the Trump administration chose what it views as the most immediately workable option, engaging with the remaining state structure, including Maduro's vice president, Delce Rodriguez, as an interim leader.