Mike Baker

As is often the case in Iran, information is tightly controlled, independent reporting is difficult, and casualty figures, well, are likely underreported.

The regime, for its part, claims it's responding to, quote, rioters and foreign-backed agitators.

State media has attempted to frame the violence as necessary to restore order.

Hey, we're going to have to shoot some protesters in order to restore order.

But human rights groups and eyewitnesses, well, they tell a different story.

A story of unarmed civilians confronting a security apparatus controlled by the mullahs.

Now, Iran is already, of course, under severe strain.

The economy has been buckling under sanctions.

Inflation is eating away at household incomes.

Current estimates have inflation rates at 42%.

Basic resources are scarce.

Corruption and mismanagement have created water and power shortages.

And public confidence in leadership is on the outs.

Now, we've seen protests before in Iran, of course, notably in 2019 and again in 2022, each time, well, the regime survived, but at the cost of deeper resentment and a widening gap between the government and the governed.

The message was deliberately blunt, signaling that Washington is watching closely and that the regime's actions could carry consequences.

Trump did not spell out what those consequences might be, whether diplomatic or economic or otherwise, but the warning itself marks a shift in tone.

It adds international pressure at a moment when Tehran is already facing unrest at home and, of course, growing isolation abroad.

Iranian officials, as you might expect, reacted angrily to President Trump's social media message, accusing the U.S.

of interference and insisting that the protests are being manipulated from outside the country.

Now, that rhetoric is familiar.