Mike Baker

It's not being paused while talks, if there are talks, play out.

If anything, it's accelerating, with additional forces moving into position even as the administration talks about potential agreements.

which suggests that this is not a pivot away from conflict, but rather a dual-track strategy, one that uses military pressure to try to create leverage at the negotiating table.

The idea, at least it seems from Washington's perspective, is straightforward.

Build credible, ready-to-execute military options and use that pressure to force concessions without having to carry out those operations.

The question, of course, is whether that approach works when the other side isn't even acknowledging that negotiations are happening.

And based on the public messaging coming out of Tehran, there's still a very real possibility that this diplomatic track either isn't as far along as suggested or isn't gaining traction at all.

It's become a bit of a parlor game, to be honest, at this point within the media to try and figure out if the White House is engaged in any conversations and if so, of course, with whom.

The regime also hasn't shown any signs that they might reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

It seems clear that the deployment of the Marine Expeditionary Units and the 82nd Airborne is tied to concerns over the strait, and suggests that ground operations designed to reopen that key waterway are, at a minimum, under serious consideration.

Coming up next, Israel strikes a key smuggling route in the Caspian Sea, targeting a weapons pipeline between Russia and Iran.

I'll be right back.

Hey, Mike Baker here.

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