Mike Baker

In fact, some of his own advisors believed he was still likely to reject the deal right up until the moment he accepted it.

Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to secure Israel's buy-in, and then with Pakistan's military leadership to finalize the terms.

Within minutes, U.S.

forces were ordered to stand down.

Now, fast forward to today, the reality is that the ceasefire is already showing signs of strain.

There have already been reports of continued attacks in the Gulf region, and that raises a fairly obvious question.

If, in fact, there's a ceasefire, well, why is Iran still firing?

It could be that Iran's not serious about holding the deal, but publicly, well, publicly they have signed on to it.

The more realistic answer is messier.

Everything's messy out there.

It has to do with the way they've been prosecuting the war basically since day one.

Iran's command structure has become decentralized.

Local commanders have leeway under the fog of war.

Well, they may not have the latest orders or instructions, or they may be acting on their own with their own agenda.

So even if Tehran has decided to pause, that doesn't mean that every unit got the memo, and it may be some time until they do.

Admittedly, that's a rather generous explanation for the reason why the missiles and drones are still flying.

The less generous explanation is that the Iranian regime's leadership isn't completely unified, meaning the possibility that not all the relevant players are in agreement with the idea of a ceasefire.

That said, we are starting to see signs that the message is getting through, at least in some places.

A coalition of Iran-aligned militias in Iraq has now announced its suspending operations following the ceasefire agreement.

These groups, operating under the banner of the Islamic resistance in Iraq, have been responsible for missile and drone attacks on U.S.