Mike Bird

So to be clear, we should start by saying there are trade restrictions that other countries put on the US. In some cases, they're steeper than the ones going in the other direction. That, from first principles, is a reasonable thing for US policymakers to be upset about. But

What became very clear in the immediate aftermath of the announcement yesterday is that the figures being used weren't drawn from any meaningful measure of what, for example, the rates that Vietnam tariffs US goods at. There was no relationship with that data. What seems to have happened is there's been a sort of reverse engineering of a figure

What became very clear in the immediate aftermath of the announcement yesterday is that the figures being used weren't drawn from any meaningful measure of what, for example, the rates that Vietnam tariffs US goods at. There was no relationship with that data. What seems to have happened is there's been a sort of reverse engineering of a figure

What became very clear in the immediate aftermath of the announcement yesterday is that the figures being used weren't drawn from any meaningful measure of what, for example, the rates that Vietnam tariffs US goods at. There was no relationship with that data. What seems to have happened is there's been a sort of reverse engineering of a figure

via the trade deficits and surpluses that individual countries have with the US. Basically, they've taken the trade surplus that Vietnam has with the US, they've divided it by the figure for Vietnamese exports to the US. It's a sort of Excel spreadsheet job. And it bears almost no relationship to what these countries actually limit U.S.

via the trade deficits and surpluses that individual countries have with the US. Basically, they've taken the trade surplus that Vietnam has with the US, they've divided it by the figure for Vietnamese exports to the US. It's a sort of Excel spreadsheet job. And it bears almost no relationship to what these countries actually limit U.S.

via the trade deficits and surpluses that individual countries have with the US. Basically, they've taken the trade surplus that Vietnam has with the US, they've divided it by the figure for Vietnamese exports to the US. It's a sort of Excel spreadsheet job. And it bears almost no relationship to what these countries actually limit U.S.

trade with, whether that's tariffs or other various non-tariff barriers. These do exist. The tariffs, as they're going to be implemented, as they've been announced, bear no relationship to that. And it's a very strange measure. to have used to decide which countries have been hit hardest.

trade with, whether that's tariffs or other various non-tariff barriers. These do exist. The tariffs, as they're going to be implemented, as they've been announced, bear no relationship to that. And it's a very strange measure. to have used to decide which countries have been hit hardest.

trade with, whether that's tariffs or other various non-tariff barriers. These do exist. The tariffs, as they're going to be implemented, as they've been announced, bear no relationship to that. And it's a very strange measure. to have used to decide which countries have been hit hardest.

And it's why you have a country like Vietnam, which does export a huge amount of the US and does have a very large trade surplus with the US. Why you've seen such high tariffs be levied on them, for example.

And it's why you have a country like Vietnam, which does export a huge amount of the US and does have a very large trade surplus with the US. Why you've seen such high tariffs be levied on them, for example.

And it's why you have a country like Vietnam, which does export a huge amount of the US and does have a very large trade surplus with the US. Why you've seen such high tariffs be levied on them, for example.

This is basically the most predictable element of these tariffs, right? It's if you could have possibly thought of anything that Donald Trump was going to do when he came into office that he would almost definitely do. It was raise tariffs on China. So while painful. Essentially, I think a lot of Chinese companies have had eight years to be strategizing about this.

This is basically the most predictable element of these tariffs, right? It's if you could have possibly thought of anything that Donald Trump was going to do when he came into office that he would almost definitely do. It was raise tariffs on China. So while painful. Essentially, I think a lot of Chinese companies have had eight years to be strategizing about this.

This is basically the most predictable element of these tariffs, right? It's if you could have possibly thought of anything that Donald Trump was going to do when he came into office that he would almost definitely do. It was raise tariffs on China. So while painful. Essentially, I think a lot of Chinese companies have had eight years to be strategizing about this.

While you can never be fully prepared, I'd say that a lot of companies and the Chinese government perhaps were as prepared as they could reasonably be. certainly a lot more prepared than companies operating in the other countries that were tariffed yesterday have been. You've seen Chinese companies over the years execute a lot of the strategy that has protected them so far.

While you can never be fully prepared, I'd say that a lot of companies and the Chinese government perhaps were as prepared as they could reasonably be. certainly a lot more prepared than companies operating in the other countries that were tariffed yesterday have been. You've seen Chinese companies over the years execute a lot of the strategy that has protected them so far.

While you can never be fully prepared, I'd say that a lot of companies and the Chinese government perhaps were as prepared as they could reasonably be. certainly a lot more prepared than companies operating in the other countries that were tariffed yesterday have been. You've seen Chinese companies over the years execute a lot of the strategy that has protected them so far.

For example, moving lots of production, especially lower value added production of things like apparel, the final finished touches of making electronic goods into Southeast Asia. Now, obviously, that's not a strategy that works as well as Southeast Asia's being tariffed, but that was the idea up until yesterday.