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Mike Shepard

πŸ‘€ Speaker
268 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Bloomberg Tech
TSMC Forecast Lifts Peers on Robust AI Demand

First of all, you know, the

Bloomberg Tech
TSMC Forecast Lifts Peers on Robust AI Demand

The 164 gigawatts deviation to 160 gigawatts is just 2.4% drop.

Bloomberg Tech
TSMC Forecast Lifts Peers on Robust AI Demand

And the way power companies work, they try to double the projected average.

Bloomberg Tech
TSMC Forecast Lifts Peers on Robust AI Demand

And this is not a significant drop in terms of power production.

Bloomberg Tech
TSMC Forecast Lifts Peers on Robust AI Demand

However, the fact that the days of the industry is actually growing, not by any ways diminishing,

Bloomberg Tech
TSMC Forecast Lifts Peers on Robust AI Demand

is because of the fact that data centers are not just bottlenecked by power, but also by water, by connectivity, by human capital, by policy, taxation, and so many other reasons.

Bloomberg Tech
TSMC Forecast Lifts Peers on Robust AI Demand

That's why, for example, workforce, there's simply not enough people out there to run data centers.

Bloomberg Tech
TSMC Forecast Lifts Peers on Robust AI Demand

But the most important reasons that this report could be misleading is two reasons.

Bloomberg Tech
TSMC Forecast Lifts Peers on Robust AI Demand

First, chip maturity, because chips are evolving so fast.

Bloomberg Tech
TSMC Forecast Lifts Peers on Robust AI Demand

That it became so difficult for day center owners and operators to build day centers fast enough that before they become obsolete, it usually takes 24 months to build a day center.

Bloomberg Tech
TSMC Forecast Lifts Peers on Robust AI Demand

And chips were changing on a monthly basis, practically.

Bloomberg Tech
TSMC Forecast Lifts Peers on Robust AI Demand

But in 2026, we're predicting that a lot of maturity and clarity will be provided.

Bloomberg Tech
TSMC Forecast Lifts Peers on Robust AI Demand

Yeah, but one of the main reasons that I don't find this report too relevant is because it's totally ignoring on-site power generation.

Bloomberg Tech
TSMC Forecast Lifts Peers on Robust AI Demand

Because of the slow development of the power companies and them meeting the demand needs of the days of the operators, a lot of days of companies are reverting to on-site power generation.

Bloomberg Tech
TSMC Forecast Lifts Peers on Robust AI Demand

If you want to grab a gas turbine, you can't find anything in the market today.

Bloomberg Tech
TSMC Forecast Lifts Peers on Robust AI Demand

Everything is backlogged.

Bloomberg Tech
TSMC Forecast Lifts Peers on Robust AI Demand

So a lot of people are reverting to on-site power generation, whether it's gas, solar, other means, hydro, and including SMRs.

Bloomberg Tech
TSMC Forecast Lifts Peers on Robust AI Demand

This report totally dismisses the fact that a lot of data center industries rely on on-site power generation and not on the grid.

Bloomberg Tech
TSMC Forecast Lifts Peers on Robust AI Demand

And that's why you really can't depend on the report.

Bloomberg Tech
TSMC Forecast Lifts Peers on Robust AI Demand

Yeah, I mean, the maturity process, governance, everything.