Mike Wilson

The Fed needs to do more.

The Fed needs to cut rates, and they need to probably provide some balance sheet.

No, we need the latter.

And I think we're going to get there one of two ways.

Either the labor data is going to basically support our view or my view that we had a rate of change trough in the labor markets in April.

And so that data then will allow the Fed to cut more or signal they're going to cut more.

The second one is that we get more financial stress.

That's what's been going on.

We wrote about this back in September, early October.

We thought the market was going to have a 10% to 15% correction because the liquidity wasn't there.

The

that the balance sheet was tightening.

And we think there's evidence that that correction is well advanced.

Okay, all the momentum stocks, you know, crypto obviously is the topic of the day, down 30% for Bitcoin.

I mean, these things are telling you that the market is worried about this liquidity.

So as usual, the markets will dictate, you know, the Fed's timing.

So if the market really wants, and look, markets are like children, right?

They'll have a little temper tantrum and then the Fed will respond to that.

So is this like a mini 2018 in that regard, right?

You kind of go into end of the year, and then there's stress in some of these financial metrics that the Fed cares about, and then they provide more balance sheets.