Mina Kimes

The Apollo program took 10 years.

It requires an enormous amount of revenue in order to pay that back.

And basically, Paul's case is this.

Right now, you have these companies spending hundreds of billions of dollars

on GPUs, on these chips from NVIDIA and others.

And they're incredibly expensive.

And right now, it seems like, according to Paul, these chips lose their value after a few years.

So you have to reinvest in the chips that go into these data centers.

Well, if you have to keep spending $700 billion a year, every year in a perpetuity, eventually...

that level of spending is going to eat into the revenue that's coming into your company.

And yes, Meta is rich now and Alphabet is rich now and Microsoft is rich now.

But eventually, if you keep spending this much and the revenue isn't coming in, your operating income, your profit margin is going to go from here, which justifies, say, a $3 trillion valuation,

to here, which justifies evaluation significantly less.

That's a market correction.

That's a pullback in infrastructure spending on AI.

That's a reevaluation of this entire space.

And that is a world where we would plausibly say AI is an industrial bubble, something that even Jeff Bezos has said.

That's a world where essentially we get in AI what we got in the internet, an enormous overbuild out of this technology, followed by a drawback

Followed by, over time, people making uses of the fiber optic cable, in the case of the internet, such that you were running YouTube on it and Netflix on it and all these other things on it.

And the bubble ended up sowing the seeds of a transformation that comes.