Morgan Housel

I could be optimistic long-term and realistic about what growth means.

The reason we tend to have growth in the economy and in the stock market is because, it's specifically because there's short-term chaos.

So am I optimistic about the next 30 years?

Absolutely.

I know that my kids will be living a better material life than you and I are.

They'll have better medicine, they'll have better technology, they'll have flying cars, whatever it is.

But I'm equally confident, if not more confident, that the path between now and then is going to be chaos.

And that's not mutually exclusive.

Like the fact that I know I'm extremely confident that there's going to be a lot of growth and that it's going to be a constant chain of setback and suffering and misery between now and then.

Historically, the biggest risk by far has always been the thing that nobody's talking about.

So when you and I survey the world today, we talk about exactly what you just said, tariffs, birthrate.

People know about those things.

There's never been a period when the biggest risk was something that was knowable.

It's always something like COVID, which nobody saw coming.

September 11th, which nobody saw coming.

The Great Depression, like all these things, Pearl Harbor, all these things that were not on people's radar that did the most damage.

And so it's not that I don't worry about tariffs or that I don't worry about birth rates.

I do.

But I would guarantee you that the worst economic story of the next 10 years, the biggest risk is something that you and I are not talking about whatsoever.

It's a risk that's going to come completely out of the blue.