Nabeel Bhatti

Hernandez here is taking a huge step up in competition.

He's arguably coming up against the division's most

frustrating defensive fighter.

Again, something that people forget about Strickland.

Hernandez, he's going to be looking to get this down to the ground where he's going to have a big advantage.

He's going to be looking to control the fight with grappling.

But he lacks the physicality that Du Plessis has.

So if you're looking at the Du Plessis fight and then looking at this one and thinking there's some kind of blueprint template for him to follow, well, he's not as physically dominating as Du Plessis.

He does make up for it.

He has tenacious chain wrestling.

He has far better top control.

But he has to get Strickland down.

And I think he's going to have a difficult time doing that.

When he does do it, he's going to have to make the most of it.

And I think he might ultimately do enough to win a close decision.

But this isn't as wide as the odds suggest.

And Strickland is going to have an advantage on the feet.

And if you can't take him down to the ground, if you can't control his fight with grappling, then Strickland might be able to do enough to actually bank three of these five rounds.

So

I think Strickland is a live underdog here.