Nate Cohn

We can debate about how bad some of the numbers are, but almost every question that we asked voters offered, to varying degrees, a negative reaction to the way he's handled his job, whether overall or on the issues.

We can debate about how bad some of the numbers are, but almost every question that we asked voters offered, to varying degrees, a negative reaction to the way he's handled his job, whether overall or on the issues.

The simple number to hold in your head is that 42% of voters say they approve of Donald Trump's performance as president compared to 54% who disapprove.

The simple number to hold in your head is that 42% of voters say they approve of Donald Trump's performance as president compared to 54% who disapprove.

Yeah, that's right. And when this represents a pretty marked decline from where he was standing in our poll and taking in January before Trump actually entered office, when he was still riding high in his post-election honeymoon. Historically, this now gives him the lowest approval rating of anyone at this stage of his term, with the possible exception it's close of himself eight years ago.

Yeah, that's right. And when this represents a pretty marked decline from where he was standing in our poll and taking in January before Trump actually entered office, when he was still riding high in his post-election honeymoon. Historically, this now gives him the lowest approval rating of anyone at this stage of his term, with the possible exception it's close of himself eight years ago.

And of course, Donald Trump did go on to lose four years later. So this is not a, he's not in great company.

And of course, Donald Trump did go on to lose four years later. So this is not a, he's not in great company.

Well, Donald Trump, there's almost always two ways to look at his numbers. On the one hand, they're usually pretty bad. They're under 50%. They're usually among the worst for any president. And on the other hand, they're not catastrophically bad. His base is usually still on his side. There's a reason why he only narrowly lost in 2020 and then actually won in 2024.

Well, Donald Trump, there's almost always two ways to look at his numbers. On the one hand, they're usually pretty bad. They're under 50%. They're usually among the worst for any president. And on the other hand, they're not catastrophically bad. His base is usually still on his side. There's a reason why he only narrowly lost in 2020 and then actually won in 2024.

And so these are two ways that we can always look at Donald Trump. And he finds himself right back where he sort of has usually been in his career. I think that this go around, I would be inclined to take the more pessimistic interpretation to dwell on how weak he is so soon after his victory and given the political opportunities that he has rather than focus on the glass half full case.

And so these are two ways that we can always look at Donald Trump. And he finds himself right back where he sort of has usually been in his career. I think that this go around, I would be inclined to take the more pessimistic interpretation to dwell on how weak he is so soon after his victory and given the political opportunities that he has rather than focus on the glass half full case.

So one reason is that Donald Trump entered this term with real political opportunities. He had a chance to push a bold agenda that had the support of the public. And I think immigration is the best example here. A majority of voters, even in this poll, support deporting undocumented immigrants. That's what Trump was elected to do.

So one reason is that Donald Trump entered this term with real political opportunities. He had a chance to push a bold agenda that had the support of the public. And I think immigration is the best example here. A majority of voters, even in this poll, support deporting undocumented immigrants. That's what Trump was elected to do.

And yet, despite that, voters disapprove of his handling of immigration. And they say he's gone too far in immigration enforcement. So he has this opportunity, this term, to be on a much stronger political footing than he has in the past. And he has already forfeited it. with the excesses of his policy. On immigration, we can talk about the details of that.

And yet, despite that, voters disapprove of his handling of immigration. And they say he's gone too far in immigration enforcement. So he has this opportunity, this term, to be on a much stronger political footing than he has in the past. And he has already forfeited it. with the excesses of his policy. On immigration, we can talk about the details of that.

So 40% approve of his handling of immigration, even though this is sort of the issue that if there was anything he ought to be popular on, given the cards that he had in his hand when he was elected, this is it.

So 40% approve of his handling of immigration, even though this is sort of the issue that if there was anything he ought to be popular on, given the cards that he had in his hand when he was elected, this is it.

That's exactly right. In fact, we asked voters whether they thought Trump's immigration policy is going too far or is about right or doesn't go far enough. And a majority of voters say he's going too far. And one example in the poll is his handling of the Kilmer-Obrego-Garcia case, the man who was deported mistakenly to a prison in El Salvador.

That's exactly right. In fact, we asked voters whether they thought Trump's immigration policy is going too far or is about right or doesn't go far enough. And a majority of voters say he's going too far. And one example in the poll is his handling of the Kilmer-Obrego-Garcia case, the man who was deported mistakenly to a prison in El Salvador.