Nathan Lambert

But it was very clear, I think, to at least like National Security Council and those sort of folks that this was where the world is headed, this Cold War that's happening. Yeah.

But it was very clear, I think, to at least like National Security Council and those sort of folks that this was where the world is headed, this Cold War that's happening. Yeah.

This is the big risk, right? The further you push China away from having access to cutting edge American and global technologies, the more likely they are to say, well, because I can't access it, I might as well... No one should access it, right? And there's a few interesting aspects of that, right? China has a urban-rural divide like no other.

This is the big risk, right? The further you push China away from having access to cutting edge American and global technologies, the more likely they are to say, well, because I can't access it, I might as well... No one should access it, right? And there's a few interesting aspects of that, right? China has a urban-rural divide like no other.

This is the big risk, right? The further you push China away from having access to cutting edge American and global technologies, the more likely they are to say, well, because I can't access it, I might as well... No one should access it, right? And there's a few interesting aspects of that, right? China has a urban-rural divide like no other.

They have a male-female birth ratio like no other, to the point where if you look in Most of China, it's like the ratio is not that bad. But when you look at single dudes in rural China, it's like a 30 to 1 ratio. And those are disenfranchised dudes, right? Like, quote unquote, like the US has an incel problem like China does too. It's just they're placated in some way or cut, crushed down. What

They have a male-female birth ratio like no other, to the point where if you look in Most of China, it's like the ratio is not that bad. But when you look at single dudes in rural China, it's like a 30 to 1 ratio. And those are disenfranchised dudes, right? Like, quote unquote, like the US has an incel problem like China does too. It's just they're placated in some way or cut, crushed down. What

They have a male-female birth ratio like no other, to the point where if you look in Most of China, it's like the ratio is not that bad. But when you look at single dudes in rural China, it's like a 30 to 1 ratio. And those are disenfranchised dudes, right? Like, quote unquote, like the US has an incel problem like China does too. It's just they're placated in some way or cut, crushed down. What

you do with these people? And at the same time, you're not allowed to access the most important technology. At least the US thinks so. China's maybe starting to think this is the most important technology by starting to dump subsidies in it, right? They thought EVs and renewables were the most important technology. They dominate that now, right?

you do with these people? And at the same time, you're not allowed to access the most important technology. At least the US thinks so. China's maybe starting to think this is the most important technology by starting to dump subsidies in it, right? They thought EVs and renewables were the most important technology. They dominate that now, right?

you do with these people? And at the same time, you're not allowed to access the most important technology. At least the US thinks so. China's maybe starting to think this is the most important technology by starting to dump subsidies in it, right? They thought EVs and renewables were the most important technology. They dominate that now, right?

Now they started thinking about semiconductors in the late 2010s and early 2020s, and now they've been dumping money and they're catching up rapidly. And And they're going to do the same with AI, right? Because they're very talented, right? So the question is like, when does this hit a breaking point, right?

Now they started thinking about semiconductors in the late 2010s and early 2020s, and now they've been dumping money and they're catching up rapidly. And And they're going to do the same with AI, right? Because they're very talented, right? So the question is like, when does this hit a breaking point, right?

Now they started thinking about semiconductors in the late 2010s and early 2020s, and now they've been dumping money and they're catching up rapidly. And And they're going to do the same with AI, right? Because they're very talented, right? So the question is like, when does this hit a breaking point, right?

And if China sees this as, hey, they can continue... If not having access and starting a true hot war, right? Taking over Taiwan or trying to subvert its democracy in some way or blockading it hurts the rest of the world far more than it hurts them, this is something they could potentially do, right? And And so is this pushing them towards that? Potentially, right?

And if China sees this as, hey, they can continue... If not having access and starting a true hot war, right? Taking over Taiwan or trying to subvert its democracy in some way or blockading it hurts the rest of the world far more than it hurts them, this is something they could potentially do, right? And And so is this pushing them towards that? Potentially, right?

And if China sees this as, hey, they can continue... If not having access and starting a true hot war, right? Taking over Taiwan or trying to subvert its democracy in some way or blockading it hurts the rest of the world far more than it hurts them, this is something they could potentially do, right? And And so is this pushing them towards that? Potentially, right?

I'm not quite a geopolitical person, but it's obvious that the world regime of peace and trade is super awesome for economics. But at some point it could break, right?

I'm not quite a geopolitical person, but it's obvious that the world regime of peace and trade is super awesome for economics. But at some point it could break, right?

I'm not quite a geopolitical person, but it's obvious that the world regime of peace and trade is super awesome for economics. But at some point it could break, right?