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Nathan Lambert

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
1665 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Lex Fridman Podcast
#459 โ€“ DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

Of course, figuring out the technology for it is incredibly difficult regardless, but just the dollars and cents that are required, ignoring, saying, hey, yes, I have all the technical capability, which it's really hard to get that by the way, right? Intel's failing, Samsung's failing, et cetera.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#459 โ€“ DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

But if you look at just the dollars to spend to build that next generation fab, it keeps growing, right? Sort of like Moore's law is halving the cost of chips every two years. There's a separate law that's sort of like doubling the cost of fabs every handful of years.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#459 โ€“ DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

But if you look at just the dollars to spend to build that next generation fab, it keeps growing, right? Sort of like Moore's law is halving the cost of chips every two years. There's a separate law that's sort of like doubling the cost of fabs every handful of years.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#459 โ€“ DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

But if you look at just the dollars to spend to build that next generation fab, it keeps growing, right? Sort of like Moore's law is halving the cost of chips every two years. There's a separate law that's sort of like doubling the cost of fabs every handful of years.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#459 โ€“ DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

And so you look at a leading edge fab that is going to be profitable today that's building, you know, three nanometer chips or two nanometer chips in the future. That's going to cost north of 30, 40 billion dollars. Right. And that's just for like a token amount. That's for a like that's like the base building block. You probably need to build multiple. Right.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#459 โ€“ DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

And so you look at a leading edge fab that is going to be profitable today that's building, you know, three nanometer chips or two nanometer chips in the future. That's going to cost north of 30, 40 billion dollars. Right. And that's just for like a token amount. That's for a like that's like the base building block. You probably need to build multiple. Right.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#459 โ€“ DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

And so you look at a leading edge fab that is going to be profitable today that's building, you know, three nanometer chips or two nanometer chips in the future. That's going to cost north of 30, 40 billion dollars. Right. And that's just for like a token amount. That's for a like that's like the base building block. You probably need to build multiple. Right.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#459 โ€“ DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

And so when you look at the industry over the last, you know, if I go back 20, 30 years ago. there were 20, 30 companies that could build the most advanced chips, and then they would design them themselves and sell them, right? So companies like AMD would build their own chips. Intel, of course, still builds their own chips. They're very famous for it. IBM would build their own chips.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#459 โ€“ DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

And so when you look at the industry over the last, you know, if I go back 20, 30 years ago. there were 20, 30 companies that could build the most advanced chips, and then they would design them themselves and sell them, right? So companies like AMD would build their own chips. Intel, of course, still builds their own chips. They're very famous for it. IBM would build their own chips.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#459 โ€“ DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

And so when you look at the industry over the last, you know, if I go back 20, 30 years ago. there were 20, 30 companies that could build the most advanced chips, and then they would design them themselves and sell them, right? So companies like AMD would build their own chips. Intel, of course, still builds their own chips. They're very famous for it. IBM would build their own chips.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#459 โ€“ DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

And you could keep going down the list. All these companies built their own chips. Slowly, they kept falling like flies. And that's because of what TSMC did, right? They created the foundry business model, which is, I'm not going to design any chips. I'm just going to contract manufacturer chips for other people. And one of their early customers is NVIDIA, right?

Lex Fridman Podcast
#459 โ€“ DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

And you could keep going down the list. All these companies built their own chips. Slowly, they kept falling like flies. And that's because of what TSMC did, right? They created the foundry business model, which is, I'm not going to design any chips. I'm just going to contract manufacturer chips for other people. And one of their early customers is NVIDIA, right?

Lex Fridman Podcast
#459 โ€“ DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

And you could keep going down the list. All these companies built their own chips. Slowly, they kept falling like flies. And that's because of what TSMC did, right? They created the foundry business model, which is, I'm not going to design any chips. I'm just going to contract manufacturer chips for other people. And one of their early customers is NVIDIA, right?

Lex Fridman Podcast
#459 โ€“ DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

NVIDIA is the only semiconductor company that's doing more than a billion dollars of revenue that was started in the era of Foundry, right? Every other company started before then and at some point had fabs. which is actually incredible, right? You know, like AMD and Intel and Broadcom. Such a great fact.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#459 โ€“ DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

NVIDIA is the only semiconductor company that's doing more than a billion dollars of revenue that was started in the era of Foundry, right? Every other company started before then and at some point had fabs. which is actually incredible, right? You know, like AMD and Intel and Broadcom. Such a great fact.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#459 โ€“ DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

NVIDIA is the only semiconductor company that's doing more than a billion dollars of revenue that was started in the era of Foundry, right? Every other company started before then and at some point had fabs. which is actually incredible, right? You know, like AMD and Intel and Broadcom. Such a great fact.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#459 โ€“ DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

It's like everyone had fabs at some point or, you know, some companies like Broadcom, it was like a merger, amalgamation of various companies that rolled up. But even today, Broadcom has fabs, right? They build iPhone RF radio chips sort of in... Colorado for Apple, right?

Lex Fridman Podcast
#459 โ€“ DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

It's like everyone had fabs at some point or, you know, some companies like Broadcom, it was like a merger, amalgamation of various companies that rolled up. But even today, Broadcom has fabs, right? They build iPhone RF radio chips sort of in... Colorado for Apple, right?

Lex Fridman Podcast
#459 โ€“ DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

It's like everyone had fabs at some point or, you know, some companies like Broadcom, it was like a merger, amalgamation of various companies that rolled up. But even today, Broadcom has fabs, right? They build iPhone RF radio chips sort of in... Colorado for Apple, right?

Lex Fridman Podcast
#459 โ€“ DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

All these companies had fabs, and for most of the fabs, they threw them away or sold them off or they got rolled into something else. And now everyone relies on TSMC, right? Including Intel, their latest PC chip uses TSMC chips, right? It also uses some Intel chips, but it uses TSMC process.