Nathan Lambert

speaker

1,814 appearances 3 recordings 2 series first heard Feb 2025 last heard 1 Feb

Nathan Lambert’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Feb 2026 with 1.

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Lex Fridman Podcast · #490 – State of AI in 2026: LLMs, Coding, Scaling Laws, China, Agents, GPUs, AGI · 1 Feb 2026 podcast

We'll also see that Chinese companies have different incentives.

So like DeepSeek is very secretive, where some of these startups are like the mini-MAXs and Z.AIs of the world.

Those two literally have filed IPO paperwork online.

And they're trying to get Western Mindshare and do a lot of outreach there.

So I don't know if these incentives will kind of change the model development because DeepSeek famously is built by a hedge fund, high flyer capital.

And we don't know exactly what we don't know what they use the models for or if they care about this.

I think in the context of a consumer chatbots is a question of, are you willing to bet on Gemini over chat GPT, which I would say in my gut feels like a bit of a risky bet because open AI has been the incumbent and there's so many benefits to that in tech.

I think the momentum, if you look at 2025 was on Gemini side, but they were starting from such a low point.

I think, um,

RIP Bard and these earlier attempts of getting started.

Huge credit for them for powering through the organizational chaos to make that happen.

But also it's hard to bet against OpenAI because they always come off as so chaotic, but they're very good at landing things.

And I think personally, I have very mixed reviews of GPT-5, but it had to have saved them so much money.

With the headline feature being a router where most users are no longer charging, like charging their GPU costs as much.

So I think it's very hard to dissociate the things that I like out of models versus the things that are going to actually be a general public differentiator.

I'll say something, even though it's risky.

I will say that I think Gemini will continue to take progress on ChatGPT.

I think Google scale when both of these are operating at such extreme scales.

And like Google has the ability to separate that research and product a bit better.

We hear so much about open AI being chaotic operationally and chasing the high impact thing, which is a very startup culture.

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