Nathan Lambert

a team for like networking chips uh that competes with nvidia and he sent a photo of a guy checking into a first class united flight from san francisco to shanghai or shenzhen with a super micro box that was this big which can only contain gpus right and he was booking first class because think about it three to five k for your first class ticket server cost you know 240 000 in the us 250 000 you sell it for 300 000 in china wait you just got a free first class ticket and a

a lot more money. So it's like, you know, and that's like small scale smuggling. Most of the large scale smuggling is like companies in Singapore and Malaysia, like routing them around or renting GPUs completely legally.

a lot more money. So it's like, you know, and that's like small scale smuggling. Most of the large scale smuggling is like companies in Singapore and Malaysia, like routing them around or renting GPUs completely legally.

a lot more money. So it's like, you know, and that's like small scale smuggling. Most of the large scale smuggling is like companies in Singapore and Malaysia, like routing them around or renting GPUs completely legally.

Yeah. So a My belief is that last year, roughly, so NVIDIA made a million H20s, which are legally allowed to be shipped to China, which we talked about is better for reasoning, inference at least, maybe not training, but reasoning inference, and inference generally.

Yeah. So a My belief is that last year, roughly, so NVIDIA made a million H20s, which are legally allowed to be shipped to China, which we talked about is better for reasoning, inference at least, maybe not training, but reasoning inference, and inference generally.

Yeah. So a My belief is that last year, roughly, so NVIDIA made a million H20s, which are legally allowed to be shipped to China, which we talked about is better for reasoning, inference at least, maybe not training, but reasoning inference, and inference generally.

Then they also had, you know, a couple hundred thousand, we think like 200 to 300,000 GPUs were routed to China from, you know, Singapore, Malaysia, US, wherever. Companies spawn up by 16 GPUs, 64 GPUs, whatever it is, route it. And Huawei is known for having spent up a massive network of like companies to get the materials they need after they were banned in like 2018.

Then they also had, you know, a couple hundred thousand, we think like 200 to 300,000 GPUs were routed to China from, you know, Singapore, Malaysia, US, wherever. Companies spawn up by 16 GPUs, 64 GPUs, whatever it is, route it. And Huawei is known for having spent up a massive network of like companies to get the materials they need after they were banned in like 2018.

Then they also had, you know, a couple hundred thousand, we think like 200 to 300,000 GPUs were routed to China from, you know, Singapore, Malaysia, US, wherever. Companies spawn up by 16 GPUs, 64 GPUs, whatever it is, route it. And Huawei is known for having spent up a massive network of like companies to get the materials they need after they were banned in like 2018.

So it's not like otherworldly. But I agree, right? Nathan's point is like, Hey, you can't smuggle up $10 billion of GPUs. And then the third sort of source, which is just now banned, which wasn't considered smuggling, but is China is renting, I believe from our research, Oracle's biggest GPU customer is ByteDance. And for Google, I think it's their second biggest customer.

So it's not like otherworldly. But I agree, right? Nathan's point is like, Hey, you can't smuggle up $10 billion of GPUs. And then the third sort of source, which is just now banned, which wasn't considered smuggling, but is China is renting, I believe from our research, Oracle's biggest GPU customer is ByteDance. And for Google, I think it's their second biggest customer.

So it's not like otherworldly. But I agree, right? Nathan's point is like, Hey, you can't smuggle up $10 billion of GPUs. And then the third sort of source, which is just now banned, which wasn't considered smuggling, but is China is renting, I believe from our research, Oracle's biggest GPU customer is ByteDance. And for Google, I think it's their second biggest customer.

And you go down the list of clouds, and especially these smaller cloud companies that aren't like the hyperscalers, right? Think beyond Core, even Lambda, even. There's a whole sea. There's 60 different new cloud companies serving NVIDIA GPUs. I think ByteDance is renting a lot of these, right? All over, right? And so these companies... are renting GPUs to Chinese companies.

And you go down the list of clouds, and especially these smaller cloud companies that aren't like the hyperscalers, right? Think beyond Core, even Lambda, even. There's a whole sea. There's 60 different new cloud companies serving NVIDIA GPUs. I think ByteDance is renting a lot of these, right? All over, right? And so these companies... are renting GPUs to Chinese companies.

And you go down the list of clouds, and especially these smaller cloud companies that aren't like the hyperscalers, right? Think beyond Core, even Lambda, even. There's a whole sea. There's 60 different new cloud companies serving NVIDIA GPUs. I think ByteDance is renting a lot of these, right? All over, right? And so these companies... are renting GPUs to Chinese companies.

And that was completely legal up until the diffusion rules, which happened just a few weeks ago. And even now you can rent GPU clusters that are less than 2000 GPUs, or you can buy GPUs and ship them wherever you want if they're less than 1500 GPUs, right? So it's like, there are still like some ways to smuggle, but yeah. It's not, you know, as the numbers grow, right?

And that was completely legal up until the diffusion rules, which happened just a few weeks ago. And even now you can rent GPU clusters that are less than 2000 GPUs, or you can buy GPUs and ship them wherever you want if they're less than 1500 GPUs, right? So it's like, there are still like some ways to smuggle, but yeah. It's not, you know, as the numbers grow, right?

And that was completely legal up until the diffusion rules, which happened just a few weeks ago. And even now you can rent GPU clusters that are less than 2000 GPUs, or you can buy GPUs and ship them wherever you want if they're less than 1500 GPUs, right? So it's like, there are still like some ways to smuggle, but yeah. It's not, you know, as the numbers grow, right?

You know, a hundred something billion dollars of revenue for NVIDIA last year, 200 something billion this year, right? And if next year, you know, it could nearly double again or more than double, right? Based on like what we see with data center footprints, like being built out all across the US and the rest of the world. It's going to be really hard for China to keep up with these rules, right?