Neal Freiman

I said the path to profit really lies through politics, but really it lies through the mini crossword in Orville.

Moving on, as attention turns towards the Super Bowl, your friend who stinks at sports betting might have their eyes glued to another platform where they can also stink at sports betting, prediction markets.

While platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have risen in status and popularity over the past years, the big game is set to bring a big spike in volume.

Already more than $161 million have been wagered on Super Bowl event contracts on Kalshi, far outpacing the $27 million bet on last year's Eagles-Chiefs matchup.

Kalshi says that 90% of the total volume it processes is on sports.

as users flock to what is a de facto sportsbook with national availability.

However, the fact that lots of money is being splashed around on these platforms is not necessarily a good thing for the people doing the splashing.

According to a report from equity research analysts at Citizens, users on prediction market sites were losing proportionally more money than their counterparts on traditional gambling sites like FanDuel and DraftKings.

Kelsey did push back on that report, saying that the data was, quote,

Flat out wrong and born of a conflict of interest, but it still left a black eye on the platform as it gears up for a skyrocketing demand ahead of Sunday's game.

Neil, you can use these platforms to bet on everything from Jesus' return to what the U.S.

tariff rate on the EU will be by July 1st, and yet most people just use these platforms to gamble on sports.

This analysis does cut to the heart of the value proposition that Kalshi and Polymarket do promise.

They say that we're a more level playing field than sportsbooks because when you're talking about DraftKings or FanDuel, you're playing against the house.

So the pricing is not so good for you anytime you go into a casino and leave.

$300 down, you know how the house always wins.

We instead offer, it's just peer-to-peer.

You're playing against other folks.

And then a user on X pointed out that, well, this is not surprising that people lose more on calcium and polymarket prediction markets than on sportsbooks because on sportsbooks, you're flipping a coin.

Whereas on prediction markets, you are taking the other side of insider trades.