Neal Freiman

Last year was the slowest year for home sales in three decades, and it couldn't have come at a better time.

I know it doesn't feel like it, but spring is coming, and that's the busiest season of all for homes changing hands, as families with kids typically try to move in over the summer before the school year starts.

Mortgage rates have been on a steady decline since peaking near 8% in January 2023.

Pushing them lower is a number of factors, lower inflation, general economic jitters, and the Federal Reserve cutting its benchmark interest rate three times.

But so far, lower mortgage rates haven't really moved the needle in the housing market, despite saving homebuyers hundreds of dollars on their payments each month with each tick down.

Last week, when rates were a hair over 6%, purchase mortgage applications fell to their lowest seasonally adjusted level since April.

Moving forward, Anne, we'll see just how important that round number threshold is to homebuyer psychology.

Yeah, I mean, it's not enough to make me look for a house because there are a number of other headwinds facing homebuyers besides high mortgage rates.

Prices, the thing that is the headline number, are still up 50%.

since 2019.

Electricity bills are higher.

Home insurance costs are higher.

And then on many housing experts say, yeah, mortgage rates can come down all you want.

But if the labor market is shaky, if you don't have job security, if you're concerned about getting laid off, then that's going to prevent you from buying a house as well.

So this is one data point, one good data point for maybe thawing out this frozen over housing market.

But it's not the complete picture.

A lot of people want this housing market to become unstuck because it's not just a housing problem.

It is an economy-wide problem because when the housing market gets going, that frees up so much economic activity elsewhere.

We just had earnings from Lowe's and Home Depot this week.

Their businesses are stuck in the mud unless people are moving into new homes and buying new appliances.