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Neil Mehta

👤 Speaker
610 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

WSJ What’s News
Why Almost Everyone Loses on Prediction Markets

And according to the market's rules, a mention only counted if it was actually broadcast on TV.

WSJ What’s News
Why Almost Everyone Loses on Prediction Markets

Peterson ended up losing all of his money.

WSJ What’s News
Why Almost Everyone Loses on Prediction Markets

When we last spoke with him, he was living in a homeless shelter in Detroit.

WSJ What’s News
Why Almost Everyone Loses on Prediction Markets

We also spoke to some of the winners on Calci and Polymarket.

WSJ What’s News
Why Almost Everyone Loses on Prediction Markets

And among them are these very large firms that have full-time staff members and can pay millions of dollars for specialty data to make algorithmic trades up to tens of thousands of times every single day.

WSJ What’s News
Why Almost Everyone Loses on Prediction Markets

In fact, it's these highest frequency traders, those in the top tenth of a percent of frequency, where users are most likely to make a profit.

WSJ What’s News
Why Almost Everyone Loses on Prediction Markets

One of these traders is Michael Boss.

WSJ What’s News
Why Almost Everyone Loses on Prediction Markets

who used to be a pro poker player and has a statistics background.

WSJ What’s News
Why Almost Everyone Loses on Prediction Markets

He places 60 trades every single minute and changes his orders up to 30 times a second.

WSJ What’s News
Why Almost Everyone Loses on Prediction Markets

Polymarket declined to comment on our analysis.

WSJ What’s News
Why Almost Everyone Loses on Prediction Markets

A spokeswoman for Kalshi said that there are many financial markets that have similar patterns of wealth concentration and that on Kalshi you're more likely to end up profitable than if you were day trading on public markets or betting on a sports betting site.

WSJ What’s News
Why Almost Everyone Loses on Prediction Markets

Kalshi also said that they don't run the ad about paying your rent anymore.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Neil Mehta - Finding Future S&P 500 Companies - [Invest Like the Best, EP.419]

Can you start with that story? Yeah. My parents moved here in the 70s. My grandparents are both from India. Both sets of my grandparents are from India. I was particularly close to my dad's side, my grandfather in particular. My dad was busy, traveled a decent amount. He and my mom would tell you that my grandfather raised me just as much as they did, especially when I was young.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Neil Mehta - Finding Future S&P 500 Companies - [Invest Like the Best, EP.419]

Can you start with that story? Yeah. My parents moved here in the 70s. My grandparents are both from India. Both sets of my grandparents are from India. I was particularly close to my dad's side, my grandfather in particular. My dad was busy, traveled a decent amount. He and my mom would tell you that my grandfather raised me just as much as they did, especially when I was young.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Neil Mehta - Finding Future S&P 500 Companies - [Invest Like the Best, EP.419]

My dad was hardworking. He's my best friend. He's an amazing influence in my life. He's still considered my best friend. My grandfather was the opposite of my dad. He was very calm. He meditated for an hour plus every day. The culture I grew up in is Jain, which is a subset of the various Indian cultures or Indian religions.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Neil Mehta - Finding Future S&P 500 Companies - [Invest Like the Best, EP.419]

My dad was hardworking. He's my best friend. He's an amazing influence in my life. He's still considered my best friend. My grandfather was the opposite of my dad. He was very calm. He meditated for an hour plus every day. The culture I grew up in is Jain, which is a subset of the various Indian cultures or Indian religions.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Neil Mehta - Finding Future S&P 500 Companies - [Invest Like the Best, EP.419]

Jainism, a little bit like Buddhism, has a lot of tenets around meditation. He's the most peaceful, calm guy. And so when I was growing up, I just knew him to be this very calm, straightforward, deep equanimity guy. And it was only when I was eight or nine years old, I learned that he owned a gun shop, which was sort of counterintuitive to the guy he was.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Neil Mehta - Finding Future S&P 500 Companies - [Invest Like the Best, EP.419]

Jainism, a little bit like Buddhism, has a lot of tenets around meditation. He's the most peaceful, calm guy. And so when I was growing up, I just knew him to be this very calm, straightforward, deep equanimity guy. And it was only when I was eight or nine years old, I learned that he owned a gun shop, which was sort of counterintuitive to the guy he was.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Neil Mehta - Finding Future S&P 500 Companies - [Invest Like the Best, EP.419]

And we would go back to India, to Bombay, Mumbai every year, at least once a year, sometimes even twice a year. And when we got there, his house was tiny. It was one or two bedrooms, a kitchen, and then literally just a hole in the ground for the toilet. It was a pretty rundown piece of property, dirt everywhere, very little flooring.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Neil Mehta - Finding Future S&P 500 Companies - [Invest Like the Best, EP.419]

And we would go back to India, to Bombay, Mumbai every year, at least once a year, sometimes even twice a year. And when we got there, his house was tiny. It was one or two bedrooms, a kitchen, and then literally just a hole in the ground for the toilet. It was a pretty rundown piece of property, dirt everywhere, very little flooring.