Niall Ferguson

I haven't seen the uplift or the benefit of us kind of

flexing our muscles, other than what you talked about in terms of Venezuela, military might, and getting the EU off the couch in terms of the military support, what I see or what I fear, and I'm not sure I sense the same fear from you, is that we're going to be less prosperous as nations spend a ton of time and energy trying to figure out a way to have the same type of incredible economic alliances that we've enjoyed for a long time.

And I would say taken for granted.

Your thoughts?

Well, the difference is that the United States is, in a sense, a kind of empire of consumption.

And the United States has run for many decades a current-account deficit.

The United States is a fantastic market to sell to for foreign companies.

Even after the imposition of tariffs, it's still a fantastic market to sell to.

The problem about China is it's not really a fantastic market to sell to because what the Chinese are all about is selling you stuff.

That's why.

They have a colossal trade surplus.

Their imports have been flat.

Their exports are up 40% since COVID.

And we're not too far from the most important European economy, Germany, as we sit here in Davos.

And the Germans are having their lunch eaten.

Their manufacturing sector is being hit extraordinarily hard.

by Chinese competition.

And Chinese competition is now in multiple domains.

You know this, Scott.

The Chinese have not only made electric vehicles the market that they dominate, not only batteries, not only solar cells, but they're now doing stuff in chemicals, in pharma, that we never thought was possible.