Nick Bloom

And that gap, interestingly enough, it doesn't all open in 2016.

So the vote doesn't actually do much at the time.

It's this kind of death by a thousand cuts.

So that's one of the big reasons we differ from the OBR is their numbers are a bit out of date now.

And so some of the damage of Brexit accrued in 21, 22, 23.

And so by 2026, it's about 8% on the macro data.

So the bottom up was actually much more work.

So the bottom up with something called the decision maker panel we actually created in 2016.

We've been surveying about 5000 British firms on a very regular basis.

for the last 10 years, and we know how exposed they are to the European Union.

So, you know, their sales, their, you know, to the EU, their imports from the EU, their regulatory coverage, how many EU migrants they have, are they EU owned, etc.

And so what you can do is you can compare EU exposed firms to non-EU exposed firms and look at the impact on growth.

And again, a kind of similar story before the referendum.

If you're a firm that's exposed to the EU, say you have a lot of trade with them and you employ some migrants, your growth rate is pretty similar to a more domestic firm.

And then after the referendum happens, this gap starts to open up.

And by 2025, which is the most recent data we have because accounts take about a year to come in, you see the gap is about 6%.

So the bottom up number tells you that there's about a 6% loss

From Brexit for the UK now, 10 years later, basically, and the top down gives you 8%, and that's our 6% to 8% range.

Is that right?

Totally right.