Nick Bostrom

And then you would invoke a so-called observation selection effect to explain why we are observing that on our planet, that improbable event happened.

And then you would invoke a so-called observation selection effect to explain why we are observing that on our planet, that improbable event happened.

Only those planets where that improbability happened develop observers that can then look back on their own history and marvel at this.

Only those planets where that improbability happened develop observers that can then look back on their own history and marvel at this.

So that's one possibility.

So that's one possibility.

Maybe it's slightly later on.

Maybe it's slightly later on.

The closer you get to...

The closer you get to...

current humanity, though, it seems the less likely it is that there would be a great filter.

current humanity, though, it seems the less likely it is that there would be a great filter.

For example, you might think that it's the step to more advanced forms of cognitive ability that would be the improbable step, but that doesn't really fit the evidence.

For example, you might think that it's the step to more advanced forms of cognitive ability that would be the improbable step, but that doesn't really fit the evidence.

We know that on several independent evolutionary lineages, you had fairly advanced

We know that on several independent evolutionary lineages, you had fairly advanced

intelligence evolving here on Earth.

intelligence evolving here on Earth.

You have it happen in the hominoid lineage, of course, but also independently amongst birds and corvids, like crows and stuff, and among octopi, for example.

You have it happen in the hominoid lineage, of course, but also independently amongst birds and corvids, like crows and stuff, and among octopi, for example.