Nick Bostrom

Well, one is that we won't end up with this future.

Well, one is that we won't end up with this future.

And that could be because we go extinct before reaching technological maturity.

And that could be because we go extinct before reaching technological maturity.

So that's one of the alternatives.

So that's one of the alternatives.

But not just that we go extinct, but it would have to be pretty universal amongst all other advanced civilizations throughout the universe, that they almost all would have to go extinct before reaching the level of technological capability that would allow them to run these types of ancestor simulations.

But not just that we go extinct, but it would have to be pretty universal amongst all other advanced civilizations throughout the universe, that they almost all would have to go extinct before reaching the level of technological capability that would allow them to run these types of ancestor simulations.

So that's possibility one.

So that's possibility one.

A strong filter that just every civilization that reaches our current stage of technological maturity just fails to go all the way there.

A strong filter that just every civilization that reaches our current stage of technological maturity just fails to go all the way there.

Then the second is that, well, maybe they do become technologically mature, but they decide not to use their planetary supercomputers for this purpose.

Then the second is that, well, maybe they do become technologically mature, but they decide not to use their planetary supercomputers for this purpose.

They have other things to do.

They have other things to do.

Maybe they all refrain from using even a small portion of their computational resources to run these simulations.

Maybe they all refrain from using even a small portion of their computational resources to run these simulations.

So that's the second alternative, a strong convergence.

So that's the second alternative, a strong convergence.