Nick Chirls

You need to find the things that no one else cares about yet.

You need to find the things that no one else cares about yet.

You need to find the things that no one else cares about yet.

But I'm like, the average in venture has never been good.

But I'm like, the average in venture has never been good.

But I'm like, the average in venture has never been good.

I totally agree. And in the sense that, I mean, so I was actually looking the other day, I was looking at, I was looking at Cambridge associates data, you know, they send out their quarterly thing. And I was looking back to notation one was a 2015 fund. So I was looking back to 2015.

I totally agree. And in the sense that, I mean, so I was actually looking the other day, I was looking at, I was looking at Cambridge associates data, you know, they send out their quarterly thing. And I was looking back to notation one was a 2015 fund. So I was looking back to 2015.

I totally agree. And in the sense that, I mean, so I was actually looking the other day, I was looking at, I was looking at Cambridge associates data, you know, they send out their quarterly thing. And I was looking back to notation one was a 2015 fund. So I was looking back to 2015.

The top quartile, okay, the top quartile, the best 25% of venture firms from the 2015 vintage have not returned their investors all their money. We're nine years in. The top quartile has not given their investors their money back. So yeah, if you think about the 2021 vintage, I think a 1X fund will be top quartile. I think returning your LP's money on almost any timeframe will be top quartile.

The top quartile, okay, the top quartile, the best 25% of venture firms from the 2015 vintage have not returned their investors all their money. We're nine years in. The top quartile has not given their investors their money back. So yeah, if you think about the 2021 vintage, I think a 1X fund will be top quartile. I think returning your LP's money on almost any timeframe will be top quartile.

The top quartile, okay, the top quartile, the best 25% of venture firms from the 2015 vintage have not returned their investors all their money. We're nine years in. The top quartile has not given their investors their money back. So yeah, if you think about the 2021 vintage, I think a 1X fund will be top quartile. I think returning your LP's money on almost any timeframe will be top quartile.

So in that sense, probably 70, I would guess 75% of the funds raised in 2020, 2021 won't return money. So I think there's LPs that are probably making a lot of decisions that are not specifically related to financial performance. And then quite frankly, sovereign wealth is a totally different beast.

So in that sense, probably 70, I would guess 75% of the funds raised in 2020, 2021 won't return money. So I think there's LPs that are probably making a lot of decisions that are not specifically related to financial performance. And then quite frankly, sovereign wealth is a totally different beast.

So in that sense, probably 70, I would guess 75% of the funds raised in 2020, 2021 won't return money. So I think there's LPs that are probably making a lot of decisions that are not specifically related to financial performance. And then quite frankly, sovereign wealth is a totally different beast.

There are people perhaps there that are getting incentivized meaningfully, but sovereign wealth will invest for lots of different reasons, including very strategic reasons that also have nothing to do with financial returns. So you have a market where a lot of the participants are not making rational financial decisions.

There are people perhaps there that are getting incentivized meaningfully, but sovereign wealth will invest for lots of different reasons, including very strategic reasons that also have nothing to do with financial returns. So you have a market where a lot of the participants are not making rational financial decisions.

There are people perhaps there that are getting incentivized meaningfully, but sovereign wealth will invest for lots of different reasons, including very strategic reasons that also have nothing to do with financial returns. So you have a market where a lot of the participants are not making rational financial decisions.

Yeah, I don't think they're going anywhere. I think they're probably in too big to fail territory.

Yeah, I don't think they're going anywhere. I think they're probably in too big to fail territory.