Nick Goodall

But also I think you're right that, you know, it's not like the numbers are storming away.

We've had some data for January as well, which shows that still reason to be pretty cautious around that shouldn't,

disregard that labour market result you know the little lift in unemployment rate yes I know there was some positivity there with more people actually working but there's still a decent underemployment rate too people still want more work it's still affecting different people in different ways as well in terms of different age groups and different parts of society too so I don't think it's all great positive perfect news but certainly it's better than it otherwise could be and you've got to be happy to see a positive figure and and that's what that

let's go back to that New Zealand Activity Index, the indication it likely has for GDP, and that, as you said, what do they call it, Kiwi GDP, the Reserve Bank's now cast of where they see all the data they've got today, where they think GDP would land, and it's a similar result.

So, yeah, I think there's good reason to think that GDP result will be positive when it comes through.

Not quite as strong as Q3, but that was a big make-up on Q2, so there's always a bit of volatility here as well.

So I think that has to lead us to more positive than negative

more optimistic than pessimistic, but there's still all those reasons to just hold that confidence down a little bit and be a little bit cautious with this.

So then, what's it going to mean for Anna Bremen and her first monetary policy statement?

But of course, it's a committee decision on Wednesday.

I think we can pretty much lock in a hold, right?

So as per usual, our eyes are going to turn straight to their forecasts and our ears are going to be very dialed in to the language

the communication style, some of the guidance on the future, not just what the forecasts say, but maybe how the governor talks about the future as well, how she talks about what their expectations are, how they're reading things, or what are the uncertainties, how they read global impacts as well.

So it's going to be an intriguing statement for that reason.

Where do you sit now?

Given your tracking, I suppose, of the Reserve Bank since the new governor's come in, how she might give a read of this?

How much might their forecast change?

Do you expect to see them put an increase slated in there for this year?

Or do you think they'll stay strong and know they want to have that

that message to market of lower interest rates for longer to provide that certainty to ensure the market doesn't start pricing and those interest rates rises sooner, which then starts to see mortgage rates rise.