Nick Goodall

And I think I'm sort of leaning the same as you in terms of how much can you attribute February's weaker sales to December's strength.

But I think there's probably something in it.

The only thing that's sort of making me probably take pause a bit more with that was I saw your chart that you put together for your internal sort of weekly update to Cotality staff.

and that chart of like annual change of sales volumes and you can just see it trending downwards so yes it's still positive most months I know the last couple weren't but you can just see it slowing down so it does look like it's kind of you know maybe we do can actually call this a bit of fatigue like we've seen increasing sales volumes they're still going up generally especially on an annual basis but maybe is going to sort of reach a bit of a crescendo at some stage soon I also wonder you

You know that our forecast for sales volumes, we sort of had volumes going from 91,000 last year to around about 100,000 this year.

But that forecast is obviously based on forecasts from the Reserve Bank around GDP and migration and interest rates and inflation and stuff like that.

all of which are now a little bit old too.

So I suspect once we get updated versions of those, it's going to dial back those sales volume forecasts.

So I do wonder if, you know, seeing sales volumes at 100k might be a little bit optimistic at this stage, and it will come dialed back a bit if we don't see that economic growth this year that we expected.

So yeah, I'm starting to lean more towards saying actually, this slowdown is a bit more real.

We've seen it sort of take hold in Tauranga first.

Now there's signs of Wellington

you know, on a more consistent basis, you know, tracking sideways year on year.

So I just wonder if actually maybe we're going to get to, you know, maybe it's going to be 91 to 95,000 sales this year.

So that growth is going to dial back more than we originally thought.

Just when you see that longer term trend of that sales volume growth

slowing down so i'm sort of leaning more towards that at the moment and and as you say the problem is going to be even once we get march sales volumes you're not going to know how much of it's you know just affected by general volatility how much of it's going to be sustained due to that conflict and how much that's going to affect sentiment in the market and deals being done so

yeah who really knows but um that's the hard thing right now is that yeah the the good data takes a while to come through some of the more immediate measures are really useful and we'll talk about some of those shortly from an economic perspective um but because they're not tier one statistics they don't get as much um you know as much weight put into them anyway but uh yeah so i think that's where i'm leaning on the sales transactions the other thing on the buyer classification data i wanted to touch on was the fact that i did do

a little bit more work to understand those movers and their behaviour.

As you said, we've sort of focused on them quite a bit and we've talked about the fact that, yeah, I suppose there's a bit of a circle here when the economic recovery comes in.