Nick Timiraos

They released quarterly economic projections then.

And you had a narrow majority of the 19 people who fill out these projections who thought they would cut rates three times before the end of the year.

And there were only three meetings left back in September.

So that would imply a cut this week and another cut in December.

But you had a significant minority of officials who didn't think any more rate cuts were going to be needed.

Now, normally, when there's this kind of a divide,

the economic data come along and they kind of reconcile the debate.

They help the people who were not comfortable with cutting get more comfortable with a cut or vice versa.

But, Caitlin, because of the government shutdown, the Fed has been robbed, really, of the information that would help reconcile this debate.

And so that's why this is a weird situation where it's going to be harder for the Fed to have a view about

what you're going to do in December because you won't have had the data that sort of guide you towards wherever that consensus is forming.

The Fed has a view as to how the economy is performing.

And you're using whatever data you have, whether it's the higher quality government data or sort of the second and third tier private statistics or just anecdote.

You're using that to sort of gut check your hypothesis about what's happening in the economy.

The answer for December is really there's inertia built into these processes.

So once the Fed starts cutting, they need to see a reason to not cut.

And certainly the markets are expecting another rate cut in December.

So if that's not how the Fed sees it,

then Wednesday's press conference and the likely avalanche of Fed speak next week and after this meeting, that's where you would hear that the Fed just doesn't share the market's view right now about the need to keep cutting interest rates.

Thanks for having me.