Nick Timiraos

And so the thinking there would be maybe it'll be easier to get somebody confirmed if they have a little bit more distance and can hold up the idea that they'll be independent.

Well, it doesn't really change too much with either of the two Kevins.

Maybe people think Kevin Hassett would be a little bit more likely than Kevin Warsh to push for rate cuts.

But most analysts who are watching this think that at least in 2026, both men would try to secure a couple more interest rate cuts since that's what Donald Trump has made so clear that he wants.

The question really then would be about, well, what happens in 2027 and 2028?

Thanks for having me.

The big question really for this meeting is, where does it leave everybody on the rate setting committee in thinking about another interest rate cut in December?

Because if we go back to their previous meeting in September,

They released quarterly economic projections then.

And you had a narrow majority of the 19 people who fill out these projections who thought they would cut rates three times before the end of the year.

And there were only three meetings left back in September.

So that would imply a cut this week and another cut in December.

But you had a significant minority of officials who didn't think any more rate cuts were going to be needed.

Now, normally, when there's this kind of a divide,

the economic data come along and they kind of reconcile the debate.

They help the people who were not comfortable with cutting get more comfortable with a cut or vice versa.

But, Caitlin, because of the government shutdown, the Fed has been robbed, really, of the information that would help reconcile this debate.

And so that's why this is a weird situation where it's going to be harder for the Fed to have a view about

what you're going to do in December because you won't have had the data that sort of guide you towards wherever that consensus is forming.

The Fed has a view as to how the economy is performing.