Nicole Lapin

But first, let's unwind the chain reaction that got us here.

The U.S.

and Iran have been locked in a standoff over Iran's nuclear program for decades now.

The real modern flashpoint came in 2018 when President Trump pulled the U.S.

out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which had capped Iran's uranium enrichment at a low-grade civilian grade, which is under 4%.

After the deal collapsed, Iran began ramping up its enrichment, reaching 60% purity last year.

For context, weapons-grade uranium is about 90%, so the gap is closing.

Then in June, Israel launched a major airstrike campaign against Iranian nuclear and military facilities.

On June 22nd, the U.S.

joined in, striking three of Iran's major nuclear sites.

The Trump administration declared it an overwhelming success and a ceasefire was reached on June 24th, 2025.

But here's the thing about ceasefire agreements in a conflict as deep and as complex as this one.

They are very fragile.

Iran was committed to rebuilding its nuclear program.

The U.S.

and Iran went back to the negotiating table multiple rounds of indirect talks with Oman as a mediator.

Then, as recently as February 27th, just one day before these strikes, Oman's foreign minister announced that Iran had agreed to degrade its nuclear stockpiles.

And suddenly, briefly, it looked like diplomacy might have had a pulse.

But it did not.

Not yet, anyway.