Nicole Lapin

Markets almost always overreact to geopolitical events in the short term and then recover.

Here's the thing.

Markets always, always, always recover.

We just don't know exactly when.

So an uptick in oil stocks, an uptick in defense and gold and a dip in travel stocks are all really predictable trends when the war escalates in the Middle East.

But trying to time the dip and the recovery in the overall market is way more of a challenge.

In other words, I just wouldn't do it.

So how long will we see oil go up?

What should we do with our portfolios?

Well, none of us can predict the future, but here's my take.

The market's resilience on Monday was actually quite a tell.

Strikes were anticipated.

The U.S.

military buildup in the region had been building for weeks.

Two carrier strike groups, an unprecedented pre-positioning of air power, all of it telegraphed.

Traders had time to adjust.

That's why the market recovered instead of cratering.

The scenario that should worry you isn't what we know.

It's what we don't know.

A surprise attack on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure.