Noel King

But even the quality of American weapons, I think, is coming into some doubt as a result of the Iran war, because we're seeing that the Iranians, with their dug-in positions, with their preparation, even with their air defense being completely overwhelmed by American power, they've got surprising survivability.

Like, much more, I think, has survived that American and the Israeli onslaught than first anticipated.

That's partially because Iran's a big place.

It's got a lot of places you can really dig stuff in.

But it may also be that America has been overestimating its own capabilities, even against a country that isn't a peer opponent.

OK, so I hear you saying that China is paying attention to what the U.S.

can do militarily because it is thinking, what would we do?

What would China do if the U.S.

attacks us the way it attacked Iran?

Is that what's going on here?

I think it's double-sided, because on the one hand, China can imagine itself as being the victim of air power, the victim of this overwhelming force.

And so it's asking itself, like, could the Americans kill our leadership?

And the answer to that is probably not, because Chinese air defence is a lot better than Iranian.

But it's also looking at it and saying, well, you know, what if we want to take Taiwan?

What if we want to use our power and project force across the strait?

This is the Taiwan Strait.

In recent years, China has sent military aircraft across the strait and towards the island southwest on a near daily basis.

Remember, we're probably talking three to four hundred thousand Chinese troops that would have to land on Taiwan.

And they're not swimming there.

They've got to get there on boats.