Owen Raskovich

They're not guaranteed.

but maybe we're below that line.

So I encourage you to go and have a look at that image that we drew up because that plays a really good role in helping you understand where demand and supply and kind of like how that line moves around over time so you can think about it.

But I want to stress one thing here, is that when it comes to demand, there typically are only a certain number of buyers.

So you don't need the entire Australian population to say, that's it, we're not buying houses for, you know, for prices to fall.

Because typically, you know, you don't sell a house every day and things like that.

But there's another thing that comes into play here is that

If there are a lot of buyers for a high quality investment, which there almost always are, so if you're looking at a nice property that would be for a family of two or three in a few years and you want to fix up that property and it's on a good block and all that type of thing, chances are you're not the only one looking at it.

So those prices are going to be less affected than those that are what we call not investment grade.

So that's something to think about.

The next thing I want to talk to you about is migration.

And this is a really important thing that goes into a lot of these economic forecasts.

Because of coronavirus, migration has ground to a halt.

I just did the numbers and I'll attach a resource in the show notes.

But I did the numbers and over the last five years, an average of 177,000 people have migrated to Australia permanently.

An average of 177,000.

That's quite big.

That's a big number.

I mean, relative to the population, it's not huge, but relative to the number of houses that need to be built to house these people, that's a really important number.

And that is a big reason why house prices in Melbourne and Sydney gradually go up over time.