Patricia Cohen

And it's really hard to know what's going to happen next.

I should also add it's bad for business because when consumers are worried about what's happening, they don't want to spend as much.

And remember, the U.S.

economy is really driven by consumer spending, 70 percent of it.

Secondly, it also means that businesses are reluctant to invest because they don't know what's happening in the future.

So there's a crisis of confidence a little bit.

But what I will say is if energy prices stay high, if oil, let's say, goes up to $180 a barrel or higher, then it's going to be very difficult to avoid a recession.

So I don't think we're there yet.

But, you know, we're in this world of uncertainty.

There's a lot we don't know.

How much longer is this war going to last?

Are there going to be more attacks on energy infrastructure?

Right.

Well, you know, I guess one question is what is normal?

Right.

Right.

So yesterday, the head of the International Energy Agency said that he thought it would take at least six months, even if the war were to end tomorrow, just to get production up to where it was.

Why is that?

That's because a lot of the production stopped when the war started.

So even though the facilities were intact, they turned it off.