Patrick George
Appearances
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Yeah, let's start with competition, right? Because it's not just the startups you mentioned. It's the Tesla spark, this industry-wide shift towards electrification. When we say electrification, that means more hybrids and eventually a move to an all-EV market. This started in kind of the middle end of the last decade when all of these traditional automakers started chasing Teslas value.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Like when you're Ford, you're Toyota, you're looking at Tesla like, why the hell are they valued so much more than we are? Like we need to be like Tesla. We need to become tech companies. We need to electrify. And it took them years to do it. And I mean, let's be honest, like not all of them are pulling this off. This transformation from being traditional car makers to being...
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
die Software- und Batterie-Fahrzeuge machen. Das ist alles, was wir in den EVs schreiben. Es ist nur die Herausforderung, das zu tun. Aber sie kommen dorthin. Und einige von ihnen überraschen Tesla in vielen Fällen. Du kannst einen Hyundai oder einen Kia kaufen, der mehr Reichweite hat als ein Tesla und schneller fährt. Es gibt ein Volvo, das mehr als 400 Meilen Reichweite hat.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Es gibt bessere Leistung von Autos wie Audi, die auch elektrisch sind. Tesla hat also angefangen, But they haven't been able to keep up. And that's been a huge criticism of this company for a long time, is they haven't kept their product lineup fresh, as every company should.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Like, there was the Cybertruck, but beyond that, and then one update to the Model 3 Sedan, beyond that, there hasn't really been a lot. And meanwhile, you have other companies coming out with, like, three-row SUVs and more crossovers and just more different options in the EV space. And that's just in the West.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
The other problem is that once they set up shop in China, which is Tesla's Shanghai factory, is what has provided them with stable long-term profits since the early part of this decade. But it also got the entire Chinese auto industry, took that baton and ran with it. Und ich meine, wir sehen das immer. Du hast wahrscheinlich die Nachrichten in den letzten Wochen gehört.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Der chinesische Automaker BYD hat eine neue Technologie für 5-Minuten-EV-Fast-Charging. Nichts in Amerika kommt so nahe, und wir wahrscheinlich nicht für eine Dekade oder mehr. Also mit seiner unglaublichen industriellen Macht, China fährt sehr vor Tesla. Und Tesla ist ein bisschen eine steile Marke da.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
So between the protests in America and Europe that are tanking sales and the fact that Chinese buyers are moving on to other brands, I think the picture doesn't look great for this company.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Ja. I can't attest this myself. It's obviously hard for us to test Chinese cars as extensively as we would here. But like this company claims to have done something Tesla's promised for a long time, but a hell of a lot cheaper. Then you have faster charging. Then you have the fact that, you know, China's full of what? Two dozen Tesla S companies that are racing ahead.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
All these little things adding up, it's like a dam bursting almost. All these things that this company pioneered, it can't keep up with its scale. Tariffs and geopolitical tensions keep BYD and the other Chinese car companies out of our market for now. I personally tend to think that's a temporary thing at best and that capitalism, even China's version of it, tends to find a way.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
But, you know, once that happens and one of these automakers is able to sell in this country or even build cars in Ohio or Michigan or Tennessee or whatever, and, you know, the Americans can get a taste of, you know, something that far surpasses a Tesla for much cheaper, I think that's going to be a real headache for that company.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Yeah, certainly busy, but he's also remarkably tactical. I don't believe, based on everything I've heard and read and interviewed and associates I've talked to about the guy, he does think many moves ahead. And I think part of the reason that Tesla's stock price shot up after the election was this belief that by working with Trump,
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Thank you for joining me. Great to be here, Charlie. Thanks for having me.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Elon kann ein Regulierungsprogramm herauswerfen, also Regulierungen in Amerika entfernen, die die Anwendung von autonomen Autos verringern. Also, indem er mit Trump arbeitet, können sie autonome Autos und Robotaxis schneller, nationaler und in einer Weise, die Tesla favoriert. Weil gerade die Regulierungen, die autonome Autos regieren, sind städtisch. It's municipality by municipality.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
It's very patchwork. But if you had a federal framework and if that framework was favorable to Tesla, that is a game changer for their ability to deliver on the promise of their stock price. That's where my mind goes, for the car company specifically. And when Trump was still on the campaign trail right before the election, Elon said as much.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
He was basically up there being like, yeah, we need a regulatory framework that's going to work for autonomous cars. That's all boring to say, but the idea is that Wenn du Fox News schaust und sie sich auf diese große amerikanische Geschäftspatriotin verteidigen, ist es so, dass er nur ein Held ist, der die Regierung auslöst und das Defizit entfernt.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Wenn in der Realität, denke ich, dass er das benutzt hat, um seine eigenen Firmen zu erweitern und Umstände für die Dinge zu klären, die er tun will. Besonders, wenn Tesla sich um Robotaxis kümmert. But that single-minded focus on autonomy and AI has meant they've taken their eye off the ball when it comes to products, when it comes to cars people can buy.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
And he's been on record as saying that it's pointless for us to come out with another car that has a steering wheel. Like, why would you do that? That's like coming out with a horse and buggy. But the technology's not there yet, you know? For now, at least, it does have to be a car company, and it does have to still do battle with Hyundai and General Motors and BYD, whether he wants it to or not.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Tesla in den 2010ern, die Art von Hate-Mail, die wir von Leuten bekommen würden, wenn wir die Firma kritisieren oder etwas Negatives in einer der Reviews der Tesla oder was auch immer, da waren so viele Leute damals, die so echte Glaubwürde in das, was er machte, ich meine, dass er die Welt rettet.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Yeah, but this speaks to how they've been successful before. And it's just, that's the Musk mentality. You just kick down every door until you get what you want. And I go back to when they built the Model 3, you know, for their first really affordable sedan. It's not just that it's a cheap electric car. It's built in a completely different way than cars were built before.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
And the factory that builds it had to be completely reset from how car factories worked. It's like, just hit reset on everything and just do it. That's your goal and you just do it. But they are running into technological limitations with how they do autonomous driving. Like, they are not there yet. And like, I've used Autopilot, I've used full self-driving for many years.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Yeah, of course, right. These are the self-driving Tesla features. They're not, I should say, they're not really self-driving. This is what we would call a semi-autonomous driving assistance system that kind of help you on the highway or will take over some steering around town, if we're talking about full self-driving. And they're getting better.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Full Self-Driving hat mich auf zwei unterschiedlichen Ereignissen verletzt, Charlie, was meine Gefühle wirklich verletzt hat. Und es hat das schon lange nicht getan. Aber es ist noch nicht 100 Prozent. Und für das echte autonome Fahren muss es sicherer und besser als ein Mensch sein, jedes Mal, in jedem einzelnen Szenario. Und sie sind noch nicht da.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Diese Vermutungen von Autonomie und autonomen Fahrzeugen. Es würde nur zu dem Punkt kommen, wo diese Technologie noch nicht da ist. Und vielleicht wird es es irgendwann. Ich denke, auf einer langen Zeitlinie, ja, wahrscheinlich werden Menschen keine Fahrzeuge fahren. Vielleicht 10 Jahre oder 100 Jahre nach jetzt, ich weiß es nicht.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Aber lately I think that what may be his greatest downfall and what may be a kind of death blow to this company is his inability to understand people. He understands technology, but he doesn't get people. And he has said, you know, empathy is a weakness. He doesn't relate to other people well. He's blamed this on being neurodivergent, I guess. Either way, not a great people person.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
And I don't think he counted on people abandoning the Tesla brand as furiously as they are, as quickly as they are in response to him, in response to his actions with Doge. I don't think he counted on that. Patrick George, thank you so much for joining me on Radio Atlantic. Thanks so much for having me, Charlie.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
And I'm kind of sad for those folks now who really believed in this environmental mission of the company. Those are the ones who are dumping their Teslas. Those are the ones who feel abandoned right now, who feel betrayed by this guy they once believed in, who has very much gone to what they perceive as the dark side.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
You know, every now and then I have to step back when I read a sentence in the news or I even write a sentence on Inside TV or for The Atlantic, you know, something like... President Trump holds a White House summit full of Teslas, you know, amid widespread protests against Elon Musk, his chief advisor and government cost cutter that are happening all over the world, including vandalism.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
And I just step back and I'm like... How did we get here? Is someone putting LSD in my coffee every morning? This is just such a baffling, bizarre outcome from the way that Tesla's trajectory has worked for the longest time and where it's at now. For lack of a better term, it's kind of insane, honestly. Ich war ein junger Schriftler bei Jalopnik. Ich habe am Ende des Jahres 2012 angefangen.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Und eines der ersten Dinge, die ich gemacht habe, war, dass mein danner Editor-in-Chief Matt Hardigree und ich Elon Musk aus dem Tesla-Factory-Floor interviewt haben, als sie versucht haben, den Model S aufzuhalten. Der erste Auto war der Roadster. Und das war ein bisschen ein Wissenschaftsprojekt, ehrlich gesagt. Es war ein Lotus Elise mit Laptop-Batterien, mehr oder weniger.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Und der Model S war ihr erster echter Auto. Und sie wollten es aufräumen. Wir haben ihn auf dem Fabrikflur gesprochen und ich erinnere mich an ihn, der damals sehr müde war, aber schmerzhaft, schmerzhaft, aber auch selbstverschmutzend war. Wir hatten Geschichten darüber, dass die frühen Model S alle Art und Weise Qualitätsprobleme hatten.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Und er sagte, ja, ja, wir arbeiten daran, aber wir machen diesen herculeanen Versuch, es hoch und runter zu bringen. Und, weißt du, ich denke immer noch, dass der Model S, der originelle, der wichtigste Auto des 21. Jahrhunderts ist, weil das war, was das Fall der elektrischen Fahrzeuge für die ganze Welt beurteilt hat. Because they were golf carts before that.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
They were, you know, the Nissan Leaf Kodas, things like that. And it became this it car in Hollywood. You probably remember this. Like everybody, all the celebrities were trading in their Prius for the Model S. And it was fast and it was sexy. I mean, it could smoke a Porsche 911 in a drag race. Like a Prius couldn't do that. And, you know, over time, we covered this guy and his company.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
It's like, hey, here's this... quirky guy who's kind of breaking all the rules and he's doing some cool stuff and he's also clearly an asshole too and he's insane about some things, but what they're coming up with is this really interesting alternative to gas. And I can just say personally, you know, by the end of the last decade, like, I kind of realized that this is the future.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
This is just a niche alternative to gasoline. It's the future and that wouldn't have happened without Tesla, but there are so many shades along the way of... What happened with him that kind of inform where we're at now?
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Just the way that he treated the press, the way that he treated open access to his company, the way that he treated his own public image, the sort of vindictiveness against his enemies. He can be very vain, certainly. He's very obsessed with his own public image, very vindictive, obviously.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
You know, calling that cave diver the pedo guy or getting in a huge amount of trouble for saying he had the funds to take Tesla private. He had this Kanye West-like trajectory. It's like, this guy's brilliant, but he's also horrible. And over time, kind of the horrible part of him sort of overtakes that.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
But, you know, with this amount of wealth that he amassed came this tremendous amount of power. And I think he has gotten... wirklich in seinen eigenen Mythen und seinen eigenen Legenden über diese Macht zu trainieren. In unvorhergesehenen Wegen.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
I think that the value of the company, the image of the company is extremely driven by him and by his involvement in it. Another analyst we talked to a lot, who's one of the most bullish of all Tesla bulls, Dan Ives at Wedbush, he says repeatedly, Elon is the heart and lungs of the Tesla story. He said that Elon is Tesla and Tesla is Elon.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
The idea is that he has had so much success and he's generated so much value for the company before that surely he'll do it again and he'll keep doing it. And he is the key driver of that. I'm not sure there is a company in modern times that is so intrinsically linked to one person. Probably the closest analog was Apple and Steve Jobs.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
I mean, this has also led to a kind of lack of accountability with Musk, too, because I think that at any other company, certainly any company in the auto industry that we would cover, if you've seen the value of the company get so tanked this hard over a number of months, that person, that CEO would have been shown the door by now. But there is this belief.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
dass Musk einzigartig die eine Person ist, die das Zukunftsbild erzeugen wird. Und das ist etwas, das er selbst gebaut hat, sicher. Das ist ein Mythos, das er selbst gebaut hat. Ich gehe zurück zu den frühen Tagen von Tesla, die wirklich frühen Tage, wie in den 2000er-Jahren. Es gab ein New York Times-Artikel über Tesla Motors und das, was sie machten.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Und Musk, bevor er CEO war, war er nur ein Angel-Investor und war sehr involviert in der Firma. Er war furchtbar, weil es ihn überhaupt nicht erwähnt hat. Also wollte er immer, dass sein Image in das verbunden ist.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Long before he owned Twitter, he was one of the central figures on Twitter and really used Twitter to get around traditional media and get around press releases and events and things like that to reach that audience directly and build up a following directly. And you said the phrase meme stock earlier. We hear that quite a bit now. And it's like, okay...
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Ich glaube, diese Protestmovement ist extrem faszinierend. Ich war in der Bay Area letztens und ich war überrascht. Eine Person, die ich besucht habe, hat früher einen Tesla gewohnt.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
I actually do think that the backlash against Tesla is the biggest crisis it's ever faced. Bigger than, you know, when it was a tiny startup trying to get its first real car out in 08, when the world was crashing. Bigger than when COVID happened and it had to shut down its factories. I think this is the biggest crisis it has ever faced as a company.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
And you said at the beginning of our chat, Charlie, you said the word polarizing, right? And Tesla's interesting because it's always been a polarizing brand. Like, when it was embraced by liberals and Californians and the Hollywood crowd, you know, like the rest of America, hey, oh, you have a Tesla, you're so smug, you're saving the world, huh? And now it's kind of flipped on its head, right?
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Now you have all of these folks in California who are trying and kind of everywhere. They're trying to get rid of their Tesla's like Democratic leaning, progressive leaning, even center leaning people who are done with the brand because of Elon, because of Doge. Meanwhile, you have Fox News defending him left and right, saying that he's an American hero who must be protected at all costs.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
And, you know, Pam Bondi saying she's going to stick up for him. I mean, what a bizarre reversal this is. And at the same time, there is no evidence that we have seen that buyers in red states, more conservative leaning folks, are going to be flocking to Teslas en masse.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Like, I don't want to stereotype here, but there are many, many studies and data points that we've reported on over the years that show that conservative leaning voters are more skeptical of electric vehicles than liberal leaning folks are. And that's a climate change thing. And it's also just like how they've been trained to view EVs over the years. So it's like, are you for EVs or not?
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
You want Elon to succeed, but you're not going to buy his car. You know, like, I have family in deep red Texas. And, you know, when we were down there recently, everyone was saying, oh, Elon's the best. He's great. He's, you know, cutting government waste. Like, okay, well, would you buy one of his cars? Absolutely not. No. So, like, that is a problem.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
That is a problem with them being able to sell cars. And my personal theory is, the ultimate test of this ist das neue Model Y, das gerade rausgekommen ist. Für diejenigen, die es nicht wissen, und ich wette, es gibt viele Leute, die es eintragen, die das Model Y eintragen, ist es der bestsellerste EV der Welt. Einige Metriken zeigen, dass es der bestsellerste Auto der Welt ist.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Es gibt ein neues Auto, es sieht ein bisschen anders aus, die Spezifikationen sind besser, es hat mehr Reichweite, sie fixieren das Interieur, es ist schöner. All things equal, this should be the best-selling car in the world. Again, this should pull a repeat. And if this thing doesn't sell, if it has lousy, you know, it just went on sale now. So we're not going to know in the first quarter.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
But if a Q2, Q3, Q4 rolls around and this thing is sitting on dealer lots, unsold, that is an existential problem for Tesla. That's a disaster moment for them. I think that would be the ultimate proof that they have totally alienated any potential buyers or fans that they might have once had.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Do you think that that is under threat, essentially? Yeah, and that's where the disconnect is, right? It's because the stock price at Tesla is all predicated on future stuff. It's solving autonomous driving, it's robo-taxis, it's artificial intelligence, which Musk has gotten really into in recent years. Es ist auch ein Prädikat für Roboter. Sie sehen die Zukunft als Automation.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Es ist kein Fahrsales. Es ist kein Duken mit Nissan und Volkswagen über Marktsteigerung. Er denkt nicht, dass das die Firma zu ihrem Trillionen-Dollar-Wert füllen wird und ihn zu den Sternen bringt und ihn irgendwann in seine Mars-Kolonie starten wird, wenn er nur Autos verkauft. Wenn wir darüber sprechen, weshalb es so hoch ist, ist es nicht nur, weil Elon groß ist.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Es ist, weil Elon Musk in den letzten Jahrzehnten persönlich versprochen hat, dass selbstführende Autos, autonome Fahrzeuge, Robotaxis, etwa ein Jahr entfernt sind. Etwas, was er seit 2016 gesagt hat. Das ist der Wert der Firma. Das ist, wo all das Geld aufgeführt wird. Es ist die Idee, dass diese Firma spezifisch selbstführende Autos lösen wird.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
I think he thought he would come in and gut the federal government and be seen as this great crusader. And that everything would have worked out great just the way it always has. He's had all this success before, right? But now people are running away from this company. And that might be the greatest failure of all here.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Never mind the fact that, you know, Google's Waymo has, you know, years more experience, you know, many, many, many miles more experience actually deploying. Yeah, they're on the roads. They're on the roads, yeah. You can go to, what, half a dozen cities in America and use a Waymo.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
So they're years ahead of Tesla in actually getting a, quote, unquote, robo-taxi service on the road, but there's still that belief. with all they've invested, that they'll be the ones to deliver autonomous cars one day. That's the valuation of Tesla part of it. But it's still a car company. Its revenue still comes from being a car company.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
Its revenue still comes from other car companies buying regulatory credits, meaning like... They pollute so much, so they buy credits from Tesla to offset their polluting. That's a huge source of their revenue. So he may have these grand dreams of robots and space and AI and everything else. But right now, it does need to sell cars. It does need to move metal.
Radio Atlantic
Elon Musk's Luck Runs Out
And if it can't do that and the revenue tanks, you can forget AI and Robotaxis. And the other thing I think about, too, is supposedly they're going to be launching their Robotaxi service in Austin this summer. Wenn wir zurückkommen, habe ich Patrick George gefragt, warum Teslas Krise existierend ist, für Gründe außer Elon Musk.