Patrick Kingsley
speaker
102 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Jan 2025
last heard Feb 2025
Patrick Kingsley’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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And the sense that two million Palestinians in 2025 could be forced to leave their homes, however much this has been portrayed as a humanitarian gesture by the Trump administration, feels very much like a second Nakba.
Well, at first, they displayed the same kind of horror and anger that we saw from Palestinians, partly out of solidarity for the Palestinian cause, but also the need to care for and provide for such a large number of people. was considered an immensely destabilizing idea that could have both created social and political chaos for the Egyptian and Jordanian governments.
So they rejected this plan and then gradually, Out of that horror and rejection came a slightly different response, which was not acceptance, but it was the realization that the Egyptians, the Jordanians, the Saudis, other leading Arab countries that are allied with the U.S. needed to come up with their own response, their own proposal for peace. the governance of post-war Gaza.
And that's exactly what we see happening in the capitals of the Arab world today.
That's one way of putting it. And it is also now what the Trump administration and its top envoys are saying was the intention of President Trump when he made this proposal in the first place. Steve Witkoff, his Middle East envoy, said...
last week that president trump didn't mean this literally he meant to get the arab world talking and proposing their own ideas to help try to break this deadlock about gaza's future that has been hanging over the region for the last 16 months if not the last 75 years what kind of plan are they talking about exactly and more importantly how would it actually work It's not yet clear.
The leaders of the Arab world, or most of them, met last week in Riyadh to try and thrash out a proposal. They're meant to meet again next week in Cairo to talk more. From what we understand about what's being discussed at these meetings, the main proposals are for the leaders of the
Arab world to have some kind of oversight over a local Palestinian governing authority that does not include Hamas in exchange for Israel promising that at some point in the future Gaza and the West Bank, the other main territory where Palestinians live under Israeli occupation, will be able to become their own sovereign Palestinian state.
The problem with this proposal is that it requires both Hamas to give up power and Israel to promise Palestinian sovereignty. Neither of those two things seem very likely at the moment.
Exactly. That was the case before President Trump made his proposal and it remains the case now. And the whole thing is reminiscent of trying to solve a Rubik's Cube. You turn the cube in one direction and you bring two squares slightly closer to where you want them to be. But at the same time, you dislodge another square bringing yourself back to where you were a moment ago.
In the negotiations to try and solve the Rubik's cube of the Gaza war, all sides, including some of the people trying to mediate, have got their own preconditions and own desired end goals that are completely incompatible with those of the others. And to be specific, Israel wants a post-war Gaza that does not involve Hamas governing it or exerting any kind of military power.
Hamas wants a post-war Gaza in which it still plays a significant political role and it still gets to keep its military wing intact, posing a threat conceivably to Israel. Meanwhile, you also have the Arab leaders from Egypt, Jordan, and elsewhere now trying to produce their own halfway house that would involve Hamas stepping down.
But also, in exchange for their involvement, Israel would need to promise to give the Palestinians a state. Israel would be happy with the first bit, getting rid of Hamas. They would not be happy with the second bit, giving the Palestinians a state.
Exactly. And the riddle of Gaza has not been solved in the last 16 months of war, but also not really over the last 75 years of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Ever since Israel was established in 1948, the future of Gaza has been a conundrum that no one has been able to really solve, least of all now.
Well, one of the implicit consequences of President Trump proposing such a dramatic plan is it really underscored the idea that Trump is acting in lockstep with Israeli interests even more than President Biden was perceived to be.
The supporters of that approach say that it is likely to place more pressure on Hamas to compromise because it believes that there is no daylight between Israel and its biggest benefactor, the United States.
The critics of that approach say that rather than making Hamas more likely to compromise, it'll in fact make Israel less likely to compromise because it believes that it can return to war, return to the kinds of deadly and bloody fighting that we saw until January with the United States' full support.
And that raises the specter of the ceasefire breaking down, if not in days, then at least in weeks, and a return to the devastating destruction that we've seen over the last 16 months.
Thank you, Rachel.
In essence, it's a three-stage ceasefire that could, if all goes well, end up being a permanent truce. The first phase is the only part of the deal that is really nailed down. That's a six-week phase during which 33 hostages, mostly alive but some of them dead, are set to be released by Hamas and its allies, who captured those hostages right at the start of the war on October 7, 2023.
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