Patrick Kingsley

Israeli children on their way back to Israel, they can very much do that. And the message is very clear. Whatever the Israeli government has said about killing thousands and thousands of Hamas militants, they still have some men left. They still have lots of vehicles. They still have lots of guns.

Israeli children on their way back to Israel, they can very much do that. And the message is very clear. Whatever the Israeli government has said about killing thousands and thousands of Hamas militants, they still have some men left. They still have lots of vehicles. They still have lots of guns.

And any discussion about the future of Gaza, any discussion about an end to the war has to take their presence into account.

And any discussion about the future of Gaza, any discussion about an end to the war has to take their presence into account.

It leaves us in a very uncertain place. All throughout this last six weeks, as the hostages were being exchanged for prisoners, Israel and Hamas were supposed to have been negotiating through mediators about a more wholesale agreement to end the war and about the future governance of Gaza.

It leaves us in a very uncertain place. All throughout this last six weeks, as the hostages were being exchanged for prisoners, Israel and Hamas were supposed to have been negotiating through mediators about a more wholesale agreement to end the war and about the future governance of Gaza.

Because they have such completely different visions for how that should look, the two sides have not been able to even start negotiations. And that means we're approaching the end of these 42 days that constitute the first phase of the ceasefire and that end at midnight on Saturday night without a clear sense of what's going to happen next.

Because they have such completely different visions for how that should look, the two sides have not been able to even start negotiations. And that means we're approaching the end of these 42 days that constitute the first phase of the ceasefire and that end at midnight on Saturday night without a clear sense of what's going to happen next.

The first and most likely outcome is that the truce continues in a very informal, unstructured way, at least for a few days. The wording of the current deal allows for the truce to continue until even if there is no agreement about how the truce should continue, as long as there are negotiations still taking place.

The first and most likely outcome is that the truce continues in a very informal, unstructured way, at least for a few days. The wording of the current deal allows for the truce to continue until even if there is no agreement about how the truce should continue, as long as there are negotiations still taking place.

Another option, and this is something that has been proposed in recent days by Steve Witkoff, President Trump's Middle East envoy, is that there could be a brief formal extension of the ceasefire, more or less on the same terms, that the ceasefire has been observed thus far. And that would involve an exchange of a few more hostages for several hundred more prisoners.

Another option, and this is something that has been proposed in recent days by Steve Witkoff, President Trump's Middle East envoy, is that there could be a brief formal extension of the ceasefire, more or less on the same terms, that the ceasefire has been observed thus far. And that would involve an exchange of a few more hostages for several hundred more prisoners.

And it wouldn't solve the fundamental disagreement about whether the war should end entirely or who should govern Gaza after the war. But it would keep the arrangement going for another week, two weeks, maybe even three weeks. The third option, and it's extremely unlikely that they'll reach this point, is that there might be a deal about who should govern Gaza next, should the war end entirely.

And it wouldn't solve the fundamental disagreement about whether the war should end entirely or who should govern Gaza after the war. But it would keep the arrangement going for another week, two weeks, maybe even three weeks. The third option, and it's extremely unlikely that they'll reach this point, is that there might be a deal about who should govern Gaza next, should the war end entirely.

But that's something that is almost impossible to reach right now, just because the two sides are so far apart about what that would look like.

But that's something that is almost impossible to reach right now, just because the two sides are so far apart about what that would look like.

It's very possible. Whether that happens on Sunday morning, I'm not sure. It's probably more likely that the ceasefire would stutter on for a little bit longer. But it is possible that the war could resume. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said as much earlier this week. He said that Israel is ready to go back to war.

It's very possible. Whether that happens on Sunday morning, I'm not sure. It's probably more likely that the ceasefire would stutter on for a little bit longer. But it is possible that the war could resume. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said as much earlier this week. He said that Israel is ready to go back to war.

And we understand from our own reporting that there are very extensive plans in place to return to fighting.

And we understand from our own reporting that there are very extensive plans in place to return to fighting.