Patrick Kingsley

In the negotiations to try and solve the Rubik's cube of the Gaza war, all sides, including some of the people trying to mediate, have got their own preconditions and own desired end goals that are completely incompatible with those of the others. And to be specific, Israel wants a post-war Gaza that does not involve Hamas governing it or exerting any kind of military power.

In the negotiations to try and solve the Rubik's cube of the Gaza war, all sides, including some of the people trying to mediate, have got their own preconditions and own desired end goals that are completely incompatible with those of the others. And to be specific, Israel wants a post-war Gaza that does not involve Hamas governing it or exerting any kind of military power.

Hamas wants a post-war Gaza in which it still plays a significant political role and it still gets to keep its military wing intact, posing a threat conceivably to Israel. Meanwhile, you also have the Arab leaders from Egypt, Jordan, and elsewhere now trying to produce their own halfway house that would involve Hamas stepping down.

Hamas wants a post-war Gaza in which it still plays a significant political role and it still gets to keep its military wing intact, posing a threat conceivably to Israel. Meanwhile, you also have the Arab leaders from Egypt, Jordan, and elsewhere now trying to produce their own halfway house that would involve Hamas stepping down.

But also, in exchange for their involvement, Israel would need to promise to give the Palestinians a state. Israel would be happy with the first bit, getting rid of Hamas. They would not be happy with the second bit, giving the Palestinians a state.

But also, in exchange for their involvement, Israel would need to promise to give the Palestinians a state. Israel would be happy with the first bit, getting rid of Hamas. They would not be happy with the second bit, giving the Palestinians a state.

Exactly. And the riddle of Gaza has not been solved in the last 16 months of war, but also not really over the last 75 years of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Ever since Israel was established in 1948, the future of Gaza has been a conundrum that no one has been able to really solve, least of all now.

Exactly. And the riddle of Gaza has not been solved in the last 16 months of war, but also not really over the last 75 years of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Ever since Israel was established in 1948, the future of Gaza has been a conundrum that no one has been able to really solve, least of all now.

Well, one of the implicit consequences of President Trump proposing such a dramatic plan is it really underscored the idea that Trump is acting in lockstep with Israeli interests even more than President Biden was perceived to be.

Well, one of the implicit consequences of President Trump proposing such a dramatic plan is it really underscored the idea that Trump is acting in lockstep with Israeli interests even more than President Biden was perceived to be.

The supporters of that approach say that it is likely to place more pressure on Hamas to compromise because it believes that there is no daylight between Israel and its biggest benefactor, the United States.

The supporters of that approach say that it is likely to place more pressure on Hamas to compromise because it believes that there is no daylight between Israel and its biggest benefactor, the United States.

The critics of that approach say that rather than making Hamas more likely to compromise, it'll in fact make Israel less likely to compromise because it believes that it can return to war, return to the kinds of deadly and bloody fighting that we saw until January with the United States' full support.

The critics of that approach say that rather than making Hamas more likely to compromise, it'll in fact make Israel less likely to compromise because it believes that it can return to war, return to the kinds of deadly and bloody fighting that we saw until January with the United States' full support.

And that raises the specter of the ceasefire breaking down, if not in days, then at least in weeks, and a return to the devastating destruction that we've seen over the last 16 months.

And that raises the specter of the ceasefire breaking down, if not in days, then at least in weeks, and a return to the devastating destruction that we've seen over the last 16 months.

Thank you, Rachel.

Thank you, Rachel.

In essence, it's a three-stage ceasefire that could, if all goes well, end up being a permanent truce. The first phase is the only part of the deal that is really nailed down. That's a six-week phase during which 33 hostages, mostly alive but some of them dead, are set to be released by Hamas and its allies, who captured those hostages right at the start of the war on October 7, 2023.

In essence, it's a three-stage ceasefire that could, if all goes well, end up being a permanent truce. The first phase is the only part of the deal that is really nailed down. That's a six-week phase during which 33 hostages, mostly alive but some of them dead, are set to be released by Hamas and its allies, who captured those hostages right at the start of the war on October 7, 2023.