Paul Johnson

So we're still quite dependent on fossil fuels.

So all of those things, I think, go into those judgments.

It's worth saying this year, in particular, one of the reasons there was a big reduction in the IMF forecast in their first forecast of the year, that partly just reflected the fact that our economy had slowed particularly sharply at the second half of

of last year.

And the IMF actually slightly upgraded relatively recently, I think off the back of what looks like a relatively strong first quarter.

So some of these are also lagging indicators as well as genuine forecasts.

Well, up to a point.

I mean, obviously, if the economy did grow, then better.

I mean, let's be honest.

I mean, the British economy has done, on measures of national income per head, it's done really, really, really badly over the last 15 years.

So this isn't just about external people saying it's going to do badly.

They also look back at what's happened and they say, look, it has done badly.

Now, obviously, I mean, it wasn't there sort of a couple of years ago when this government came in and they were being accused of talking down the economy because they were being a bit miserable people.

about it and i think they sort of learned their lesson from that and started telling a bit of a different story i think i can have some effect but i think in the end people see what's really happening and they take that much notice of the of what's being said i mean people like

Partly it is difficult, but partly it's difficult because a lot of the answers are, first of all, long term, and secondly, politically tough.

So I'm quite optimistic, actually, about how much government can do to make the economy grow, but only over a significant period of time.

And of course, pressures on government are always short term.

So we started off this podcast by talking about, well, surely the government has turned.

They do loads and loads to support people through an energy crisis and so on.

So all of their energy, as it were, goes into dealing with these short-term issues, even though some of them are potentially contrary to any idea of long-term growth.