Paul Tudor Jones
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
I don't know whether we're going to blow off like we did in 1999.
Is it possible?
Are all the ingredients in place?
I think clearly they are.
For me, the one thing that you can never, ever forget is that a year from today, assuming that the president gets his wishes, that the Fed funds rate's going to probably be in the 2.5%.
Yeah, I think they would like to see it at two and a quarter.
So I think two and a half, 275.
Obviously, whoever the new Fed chair is going to have to be able to intellectually move that board, a majority of the board.
He's probably, whoever the new Fed chair, let's say they've got six solid votes, so he'll have to find one more.
And I don't think it'll be that hard to do.
But if you're going to have two and a half percent overnight rates or 275,
Well, the only thing I'd say is I don't think you've got the leverage necessarily in the corporate balance sheets yet.
You clearly have leverage within the equity ecosystem, and by that I mean you just had a proliferation and explosion in derivative products.
I want to say that levered ETFs
are up 250% since the 2022 bottom.
And I want to say there's four or five hundred with another couple of hundred in the pipeline.
So you're clearly creating derivative leverage, whether it's in the options market, we see single stock options, we just see options activity exploding.
Everywhere you look, there's greater leverage, again, in the equity infrastructure for what has become a really trader nation.
We have the highest percentage equity holdings by individuals in history.