Paul Wallace

If it's sort of a one-off strike and Trump quickly comes out and says, look,

you know, we're not going to do anything more.

Let's just end this now.

He claims victory and says he's taken out, you know, Iran's ballistic missiles, whatever the case is.

And Iran might not retaliate in too aggressive a fashion.

However, if the U.S.

decides to go for regime change and, you know, effectively say we're not doing a one-off strike, we're going to continue this until there's something like a change of regime in Iran, then in that case, I think,

You know, that's the situation where Iran is most likely to be very aggressive.

It sounds as if Iran has roughly two weeks to get back to the Americans, and then if they're broadly satisfied, the Americans will say, okay, let's go to round three, and we don't know where that will be.

But of course, there are plenty of people, including in the oil market,

who think America might be essentially trying to lull Iran into a false sense of security and maybe willing to strike the country before Iran returns with those proposals.

In some senses, that echoes what happened in June last year with the 12-day war between Iran and Israel and then America at the end.

That war happened when, or at least it started when, the U.S.

and Iran were in the middle of nuclear talks.

It sounds as if Iran has you know roughly two weeks to get back to the Americans and then if they're broadly satisfied the Americans will say okay let's go to round three and we don't know where that will be.

But of course there are plenty of people including including in the oil market who think America might be essentially trying to lull Iran into a false sense of security and maybe

willing to strike the country before Iran returns with those proposals.

Because that's, in some senses, that echoes what happened in June last year with the 12-day war between Iran and Israel and then America at the end.

That war happened when, or at least it started when, the U.S.

and Iran were in the middle of nuclear talks.