Pete Huang

That's changing pretty fast.

By whatever description you can think of, GPT-4 is probably somewhere in the range of a high schooler when it comes to reasoning capability, even if it's regularly beating human averages at complicated tasks like medical school exams and things like that.

As we continue, the big debate is about two general levels of AI capability.

One is called artificial general intelligence or AGI.

The second is called artificial super intelligence or ASI.

AGI is an AI that matches humans.

Anything a human can do, AGI can also do.

ASI is an AI that exceeds humans.

It can do things that humans can't.

Now, this is like Skynet from the Terminator series.

This is an uber powerful system that can take over anything if it really wanted to.

So let's talk about AGI, ASI, and what Leopold Aschenbrenner is seeing in his perspective.

Getting from GPT-2 to GPT-4, from a preschooler to a high schooler was simply a matter of training more.

The models didn't really change all that much.

You just jammed more training and more data in there.

The question is this, what happens if the trends continue like they have been?

If we take the same amount of improvement that went from GPT-2 to GPT-4, again from that preschooler level to the high schooler level, and then just start at GPT-4, where do we end up?

I mean, this is kind of a dumb comparison, but preschool to high school is like 13, 14 years of education for a human.

If you give a high schooler another 13, 14 years of education, they would have a PhD.

And because this is all happening in a computer, when you have one AI model that is as good as a human with a PhD, you actually have millions, hundreds of millions, billions of them.