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Pete Huang

šŸ‘¤ Speaker
414 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Neuron: AI Explained
ā€œArtificial General Intelligence Is Comingā€, Ex-OpenAI Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

So what he's saying is 1 million to 100 million times more.

The Neuron: AI Explained
ā€œArtificial General Intelligence Is Comingā€, Ex-OpenAI Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

Then he's looking forward and estimating from GPT-4 today onwards, we're gonna get another five to six orders of magnitude.

The Neuron: AI Explained
ā€œArtificial General Intelligence Is Comingā€, Ex-OpenAI Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

So that's another 100,000 times to 1 million times improvement.

The Neuron: AI Explained
ā€œArtificial General Intelligence Is Comingā€, Ex-OpenAI Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

And parts of that are somewhat believable, right?

The Neuron: AI Explained
ā€œArtificial General Intelligence Is Comingā€, Ex-OpenAI Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

Like Microsoft is already saying quite publicly that they helped build an absolutely massive computer to help OpenAI train GPT-5.

The Neuron: AI Explained
ā€œArtificial General Intelligence Is Comingā€, Ex-OpenAI Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

And people are already calling for even more computing resources, even larger,

The Neuron: AI Explained
ā€œArtificial General Intelligence Is Comingā€, Ex-OpenAI Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

computing clusters to train these models.

The Neuron: AI Explained
ā€œArtificial General Intelligence Is Comingā€, Ex-OpenAI Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

Ultimately, Leopold looks at all this and comes to the conclusion saying, look, the train isn't stopping here.

The Neuron: AI Explained
ā€œArtificial General Intelligence Is Comingā€, Ex-OpenAI Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

I mean, each of these three buckets still has lots of room to run.

The Neuron: AI Explained
ā€œArtificial General Intelligence Is Comingā€, Ex-OpenAI Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

And honestly, I believe that 1 million times more training starting from GPT-4 will turn into a human level AI researcher.

The Neuron: AI Explained
ā€œArtificial General Intelligence Is Comingā€, Ex-OpenAI Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

And again, once you get one AI that can be an AI researcher, you have millions, and now you're on a path to super intelligence.

The Neuron: AI Explained
ā€œArtificial General Intelligence Is Comingā€, Ex-OpenAI Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

Before we continue, let's just talk very quickly about why AGI and ASI are so important.

The Neuron: AI Explained
ā€œArtificial General Intelligence Is Comingā€, Ex-OpenAI Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

Once you have AI that is powerful enough,

The Neuron: AI Explained
ā€œArtificial General Intelligence Is Comingā€, Ex-OpenAI Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

You can do so many things that you can't even think about today.

The Neuron: AI Explained
ā€œArtificial General Intelligence Is Comingā€, Ex-OpenAI Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

Let's talk about weapons.

The Neuron: AI Explained
ā€œArtificial General Intelligence Is Comingā€, Ex-OpenAI Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

Any government that gets superintelligence can make crazy powerful weapons.

The Neuron: AI Explained
ā€œArtificial General Intelligence Is Comingā€, Ex-OpenAI Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

They can hack into any system.

The Neuron: AI Explained
ā€œArtificial General Intelligence Is Comingā€, Ex-OpenAI Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

I mean, the limits of what we think are possible are defined by human abilities.

The Neuron: AI Explained
ā€œArtificial General Intelligence Is Comingā€, Ex-OpenAI Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

And now we have AI that can do more than humans.

The Neuron: AI Explained
ā€œArtificial General Intelligence Is Comingā€, Ex-OpenAI Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

I mean, definitely for knowledge workers like me who spend our days just typing on a laptop all day.