Peter Baker

As I told everyone... A week ago, do not retaliate and you will be rewarded.

As I told everyone... A week ago, do not retaliate and you will be rewarded.

Hello? Hey, Peter Goodman. Michael Barbaro. How are you, sir?

Hello? Hey, Peter Goodman. Michael Barbaro. How are you, sir?

Sure. So there are not a lot of sure things in this world, but one of them is that in times of crisis, people around the world buy the US dollar, and specifically, they buy US government bonds. because there's this built-in assumption that whatever happens, war, aliens invade, you know, whatever, the U.S. government's going to endure.

Sure. So there are not a lot of sure things in this world, but one of them is that in times of crisis, people around the world buy the US dollar, and specifically, they buy US government bonds. because there's this built-in assumption that whatever happens, war, aliens invade, you know, whatever, the U.S. government's going to endure.

And that appears to have broken down, not fully, but at least in the margins, this idea that the U.S. is the ultimate safe haven is broken down. And when people are less willing to buy U.S. government debt, the U.S. government has to pay a greater rate of return to persuade people to buy our debt. They have to pay higher rates. interest rates basically.

And that appears to have broken down, not fully, but at least in the margins, this idea that the U.S. is the ultimate safe haven is broken down. And when people are less willing to buy U.S. government debt, the U.S. government has to pay a greater rate of return to persuade people to buy our debt. They have to pay higher rates. interest rates basically.

And a lot of other interest rates are paid to the rates on U.S. government debt, mortgages, credit cards. And so you've got both the message of the bond market freaking out, which is that people who trade money for a living worry that bad days are ahead. And then you've got the direct consequences of jacking up borrowing rates, which is an easy way to end up in a nasty recession.

And a lot of other interest rates are paid to the rates on U.S. government debt, mortgages, credit cards. And so you've got both the message of the bond market freaking out, which is that people who trade money for a living worry that bad days are ahead. And then you've got the direct consequences of jacking up borrowing rates, which is an easy way to end up in a nasty recession.

Yeah, I mean, you know, your mortgage goes up, well, you're going to spend less on other parts of the economy, which means you're depriving businesses of income. Maybe you're not going to buy that house you were thinking about, and now the housing prices don't go up as much, and some developer doesn't make as much money as they hoped, and construction companies get less business as a result.

Yeah, I mean, you know, your mortgage goes up, well, you're going to spend less on other parts of the economy, which means you're depriving businesses of income. Maybe you're not going to buy that house you were thinking about, and now the housing prices don't go up as much, and some developer doesn't make as much money as they hoped, and construction companies get less business as a result.

This is how economic downturns happen. One key trigger is when the cost of borrowing money goes up, and especially quickly, that can be a real shock to the system.

This is how economic downturns happen. One key trigger is when the cost of borrowing money goes up, and especially quickly, that can be a real shock to the system.

President Trump's announcement of universal tariffs on the whole world, including the European Union, is a major blow to the world economy.

President Trump's announcement of universal tariffs on the whole world, including the European Union, is a major blow to the world economy.

The consequences will be dire for millions of people around the globe.

The consequences will be dire for millions of people around the globe.

The Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq were all down more than 3% at one point.

The Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq were all down more than 3% at one point.