Peter McCrory

speaker
628 appearances 3 recordings 3 series first heard Jan 2026 last heard 19 Jun

Peter McCrory’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 3 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 1.

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Whereas if Claude is able to complete the task end to end in a fully autonomous and reliable way,
You can think about data entry work where you're grabbing bits of information from documents and compiling it into a different database.
Increasingly large language models can just do that task maybe even better than humans.
We would expect that those are the jobs where demand
for those workers is likely to subside as businesses ultimately adopt.
Interestingly, we do see that occupations that have high AI exposure, computer programmers, data entry workers, as I mentioned,
These jobs are also expected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the U.S.
to have a weaker job growth over the next decade.
So it does seem like we're picking up some structural dimension of where the economy is headed, and we think that this notion can help us track whether there's any widespread displacement today.
Yeah.
So the way that I would think about this is the 1.8 percentage point
number that we talked about relies on this thing called holton's theorem which is a sort of standard way to add up efficiency gains without making too many assumptions about how those efficiency gains emerge in general it's being able to do a particular task faster and given the structure of the economy today what would that mean overall if you add up those those efficiency gains
We ran the survey of Claude users recently, where we asked them about their fears and hopes with AI.
And one of the things that emerged in that survey was a lot of discussion around the labor market impact and also the productivity gains that people are experiencing.
More so than being able to do things faster, people were more often likely to indicate that Claude helps them do more.
So broadening of scope.
that broadening of scope looks more like labor augmentation than labor automation.
And in that sense,
I think that that might be an important aspect of the productivity gains that we ultimately might experience.
I guess, you know, this goes back to this point that the technology is broadly applicable, and we also want to be good stewards of the technology.
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